Cycle Fundamentals II: Translating cycles into price projections📊 In Part 1, we explored the idea that cycles may exist in price data. This naturally raises the next question - what could we do with this information? The half-span offset, again from J.M. Hurst's seminal work on cycles, can help turn a measurable cycle into a projection that can be acted on.
🧠 In many ways, the concept is straightforward.
Step 1: Identify a cycle and measure it top to top or bottom to bottom. In the stylized image above, that is a 20-week cycle
Step 2: Take a copy of the cycle/chart and shift it forward by half of its length. 10 weeks in our example
Step 3: Proceed to analysis. Where the original and the shifted cycle cross should mark the halfway point of the advance or decline and forms the basis of the projection. Taking a measure of the distance from the preceding high or low to the crossing - and projecting the same distance beyond it provides an indication of where the move may complete
🎯 The third panel applies this process to the illustrative chart from Part 1. Here, driven by the underlying cycles in the data, the projection logic flags zones where tops and bottoms are worth watching for. In theory, identifying the halfway point on the cycle should give the trader or investor an estimate of how large a move may be, and how long it may take based on the fulfillment of the cycle. Of course, this is a highly stylized example and cycle projections should not be viewed as a matter of fact. The projection is a possibility to be considered. Cycles can also change (or be mis-identified) and quickly become. Crossing back below a projection line can serve as a clear from of "invalidation" of the projection and provide insight into stop-loss positioning and trade sizing (we will discuss this further in a future post).
📌 In Part 1 we posited that cycles may underlie some familiar chart patterns and market behavior. In Part 2 we have put forward a methodology that can help unlock valuable price projection insights for consideration by the trader. In Part 3, we will start to get practical – translating Hurst’s “nominal” cycle lengths into trading days. Until then, try taking a look at a well-defined high, measure back to a prior one, and project half the distance forward to see where it lands – could it indicate a turning point? 
Education
Long
Short
TIP: Why high inflation won’t save this ETF - July 2026SYMBOL: AMEX:TIP | Direction: Short | Timeframe: 3-Week
Published: July 2026
TIPS are supposed to protect you from inflation. The clue is in the name. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities. So why is this chart signalling a correction?
Because the popular understanding of how TIPS work is incomplete. The inflation adjustment is
real. It is simply not the only thing driving the price of a bond ETF. Duration risk is. Real yields
are. And both of those are moving in the wrong direction for TIP holders right now.
TIP has rallied from the 2022 lows in a well-defined ascending channel. That channel is now
exhausted at its upper boundary. Bearish momentum signals are printing. The 3-week chart is
asking a question that the inflation narrative cannot answer.
On the above 3-week chart TIP has reached the upper boundary of its multi-year
ascending channel with bearish momentum signals printing across multiple oscillators.
Three reasons now exist to expect a corrective move lower. They include:
1) Upper channel exhaustion with a bear pending signal . TIP has been climbing within
a clear ascending channel since the 2022 lows. Price is now pressing the upper
boundary of that channel at ~$107. A Bear Pending signal has printed at this level.
Historically, this break of support has marked every significant reversal in this ETF, including the
2021 top and the 2019 peak. It does not print often, but when it does at an upper channel
resistance, Look left.
2) Bearish divergence across the majority of momentum oscillators. More than half of
the oscillators and momentum gauges on the 3-week chart print bearish divergence at
current levels. Price has made a higher high within the channel. Momentum has not
confirmed it. That divergence is the market’s internal structure signalling that buyers are
losing the argument, even as the price tag says otherwise. RSI is simultaneously testing
the upper boundary of its own ascending channel, a level at which it has repeatedly
turned lower. Mean reversion from here is the higher probability path.
3) Duration risk is running faster than the inflation credit. TIP holds intermediate-term
U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities with an average duration of approximately 6
years. The mathematics of this matters. A 1% rise in nominal Treasury yields inflicts
roughly a 5–6% price drag on a bond of this duration. The CPI adjustment to principal is
real and it helps, but it does not move fast enough to offset aggressive yield moves.
When the Fed holds rates high, when Treasury supply is heavy, and when real interest
rates rise, the base bond price falls faster than inflation adds to it. The price of TIP
drops. The ETF structure cannot change the maths.
Targets (corrective)
• 1st target: ~$101. Mid-channel mean reversion. Prior consolidation zone.
• 2nd target: ~$93. Lower channel boundary. A deeper correction to this level would
represent a full round-trip to the post-2022 recovery base.
A 3-week close above the upper channel boundary, sustained, would invalidate this setup. That
level is approximately $109–$110. If TIP breaks and holds above there, the corrective thesis is
wrong.
The crowd
The crowd holds TIPS as the inflation hedge. That logic is not wrong. It is incomplete. Retail
investors who own TIP have been told, correctly, that the principal adjusts with CPI. What they
have not always been told is that the ETF price is also a function of its underlying bond prices,
which move inversely with yields and are sensitive to duration. When the two forces work
against each other, the net result depends on the maths, not the narrative.
This idea is not a call that inflation disappears. It is a call that the channel is exhausted, the
signals are bearish, and the duration drag is not being fully priced in. Owning the right
instrument for the wrong reason is still the wrong trade. The chart does not care about the
rationale. It cares about price.
The inflation hedge that falls when inflation is high is not a paradox. It is duration. It has always
been duration. The chart is just the most recent reminder.
Ww
Type: Fixed income / ETF technical | Timeframe: 3–9 months
=============================================
Disclaimer : This idea is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. It is not a call that inflation is declining or that TIPS will permanently underperform. TIP is a fixed income ETF that tracks U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. The price of this ETF is sensitive to changes in nominal interest rates, real yields, and duration, in addition to inflation adjustments. A rise in nominal Treasury yields will negatively affect the price of this
ETF irrespective of the prevailing inflation rate.
Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Short 
Short
Short
Week 31 of 52 | Market Open Update #2The market came in with a lot of optimism this morning after oil sold off over the weekend, but we're already seeing that first burst of buying cool off.
Right now, this doesn't look like the start of a "buy everything" rally. It looks more like investors are picking their spots while waiting for the Fed and one of the biggest earnings weeks of the year.
Lower oil is definitely helping. Treasury yields have eased a bit, the VIX is lower, and that's enough to bring buyers back into parts of the market that were hit hardest last week. But if you look under the hood, AI stocks are telling a different story.
That's where my attention is today.
What's actually driving today's move?
Honestly, I think this morning is more about positioning than new information.
Yes, the pause in Middle East tensions helped push oil lower, but everyone already knew that before the opening bell. What we're seeing now is investors deciding where they actually want to put money ahead of the Fed and Big Tech earnings.
If semiconductors can't rally on a day like today, that's worth paying attention to.
Who's leading?
Travel, financials and consumer stocks are having a good morning. Lower oil is an obvious tailwind there.
Technology is green too, but it's not nearly as strong as futures suggested before the open. The biggest drag is still the chip space.
Bond yields are a little softer, the VIX is back below 18, and neither one is flashing stress right now.
Stocks I'm watching
NASDAQ:ASTS is trying to recover after Friday's reversal. The move looks encouraging so far, but I'd like to see it stay above the $58 area before calling the pullback over.
NASDAQ:MSTR is one of the stronger names this morning thanks to Bitcoin pushing back above $65K. As long as BTC stays firm, buyers should remain interested.
NASDAQ:GOOG is finally getting some relief after last week's earnings selloff. Whether that recovery sticks probably depends more on Microsoft's earnings than Alphabet itself.
NASDAQ:AAPL is quietly doing what Apple usually does. It's holding up well, but I think most investors are waiting for earnings before making a bigger move.
NASDAQ:NVDA is the one that stands out—in a bad way. It opened strong and sellers showed up almost immediately. That's not what you want to see if you're bullish on AI this week.
NASDAQ:SMCI looks healthier than Nvidia, but I'd still like to see buyers defend the $30 area.
NASDAQ:MU bounced at the open and then gave almost everything back. After Friday's heavy selling, I think institutions are still reducing exposure rather than adding to positions.
NYSE:NOW continues to impress. Last week's earnings reaction has completely flipped, and it's quietly becoming one of the strongest software names again.
What I'm watching this afternoon
I'm really only focused on three things.
First, can SPY hold onto today's gains? If the opening gap disappears, this could turn into another "sell the rally" session.
Second, I want to see if NVDA and MU can stop making lower highs. If semis stay weak, it'll be hard for the Nasdaq to build real momentum.
And finally, I'm watching Treasury yields. They've been helping equities this morning, but if they start climbing again, today's rally could lose steam pretty quickly. Week 31 of 52 | Daily Market Brief #2Last week reminded everyone how quickly market leadership can change. The AMEX:SPY barely moved, but underneath the surface we saw aggressive selling in semiconductors while money rotated into names like Apple and several defensive sectors. This week is likely to be even more important with the Fed meeting and earnings from NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:META , NASDAQ:AMZN and NASDAQ:AAPL .
The good news this morning is that geopolitical tensions appear to have eased slightly over the weekend. Oil is trading lower after reports that direct attacks between the U.S. and Iran have paused, and that's giving equity futures a boost before the open. Lower oil also takes some pressure off inflation expectations, which is exactly what growth stocks needed after last week's selloff.
That said, I don't think today's story is really about oil. It's about whether investors are willing to buy technology again before one of the biggest earnings weeks of the year.
The market already told us something important after Alphabet reported. Strong revenue growth wasn't enough. Investors want proof that massive AI spending is turning into profitable growth and free cash flow. Microsoft, Meta and Amazon now have to answer that question too. If they do, last week's semiconductor weakness may end up looking like a healthy reset. If they don't, I wouldn't be surprised to see another round of selling across AI-related names.
Treasury yields remain another key piece of the puzzle. The recent move toward 4.7% on the 10-year has been one of the biggest headwinds for growth stocks. If yields continue moving lower alongside oil, that would create a much better backdrop for technology. On the other hand, if yields reverse higher, today's rally could fade quickly.
Stocks I'm Watching
ASTS — Friday's reversal changed the short-term picture. I'd like to see buyers defend the $55-$56 area before becoming more constructive.
MSTR — Still trading almost entirely with Bitcoin. If BTC can reclaim the mid-$65K area, MSTR should benefit quickly.
GOOG — Last week's reaction wasn't really about earnings quality. It was about AI spending. This week's hyperscaler earnings will either validate that concern or prove the market overreacted.
AAPL — One of last week's strongest mega-cap names. Investors clearly rotated toward Apple, but expectations going into earnings are now much higher.
NVDA — Probably the most important stock on the board again this week. The long-term AI story hasn't changed, but investors want evidence that infrastructure spending continues translating into demand.
SMCI — I'm watching whether last week's pullback finds support around the recent breakout area. Losing that level would suggest momentum is fading.
MU — Friday's selling looked more like institutional profit-taking than a change in the long-term story. I'd like to see the stock stabilize before calling a bottom.
NOW — One of the strongest post-earnings reversals last week. As long as Treasury yields cooperate, software could continue outperforming.
Three Things I'll Be Watching Today
1. Oil after the weekend headlines. If crude continues moving lower, it should remain supportive for equities.
2. Treasury yields. Technology probably won't sustain a rally if the 10-year starts climbing again.
3. Semiconductor leadership. I want to see whether NVDA, MU and SMCI actually participate in today's strength. If they don't, I'd be cautious about chasing the early move.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion based on current market conditions. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions. 
Long
SPY's Breakdown Was A Trap - Right Back To 748.SPY's Breakdown Was A Trap - Right Back To 748.
Friday's question was whether the loss of 740.44 was real or a bear trap. It was a trap. SPY reclaimed 740.44 over the weekend, snapped back into the range, and is trading 745, pressing toward the 748 ceiling again with a fresh high-conviction bull announcement just printed. The failed breakdown did exactly what failed breakdowns do - flushed the shorts and reversed. But it has carried price right back to 748, the level that has rejected five times. Strong setup, same wall. Neutral until it closes above.
Resistance: 748.00 - the five-time ceiling, again
Key resistance: 751.00, then 755.66
Current price: 745.35
Support: 740.44 - reclaimed, the failed-breakdown line
Key support: 736.87 - first shelf below
Structural floor: 735.21 - the trap low
Two paths from here:
748 finally breaks on this attempt. A failed breakdown that reclaims with a fresh top-quartile announcement behind it is the strongest run at 748 yet - the trap cleared the sellers below and conviction is on side. A confirmed close above 748 opens 751 and finally triggers the long on the one name where a break carries an edge.
748 rejects a sixth time. Five failures is a wall, and price is walking right back into it. A rejection here and a loss of 740.44 would make the reclaim itself the trap and send it back toward 735. The burden stays on the bulls until the close clears the level.
The breakdown was a trap and the snap-back was clean - but it has led right back to 748, the level that has said no five times. This is the best-supported attempt yet. It still is not a break until it closes above 748.
Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice. Research 27.07.2026🌏 Markets:
AMEX:SPY +6.49 +0.88%(pre/m)
NASDAQ:QQQ +9.52 +1.39%(pre/m)
🆕 Economic News:
The “conditional” pause in strikes between the US and Iran has continued since last Friday.
08:30 USA – Durable Goods Orders
10:30 USA – Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
📈 Gap Ups
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
LSE:AZN NASDAQ:BKR
Other news:
$T Signs Agreement to Expand Use of D-Wave's NASDAQ:QBTS Quantum Computing Technology Across Network Operations
XETR:SAP extending a rally from last week after the earnings.
NASDAQ:RKLB Awarded Record $266M Missile Defense Contract with U.S. Space Force for Suborbital Launches
Analysts are linking the rally in the US AI industry to the historically record-breaking IPO of Chinese memory chipmaker CXMT : NASDAQ:SKHY NASDAQ:MU NASDAQ:SNDK NASDAQ:WDC NASDAQ:STX
NASDAQ:ARGX announced a definitive agreement to acquire NASDAQ:FBRX in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately $2.2 billion or $77 per share. / NASDAQ:TRAX rose in symphaty to FBRX
NASDAQ:NVDA anounced launch of AI Alliance
-- Tech heavyweights NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:META , and NYSE:IBM have joined forces to create the Open Secure AI Alliance.
-- The initiative aims to protect open-source AI from strict government regulations and provide cybersecurity experts with uncensored, open models to combat cyber threats effectively
-- Key infrastructure and cybersecurity players joining the 30+ member alliance include NYSE:DELL , NYSE:HPE , NYSE:CRM , XETR:SAP , NASDAQ:ADBE , NASDAQ:CRWD , NASDAQ:CSCO , NASDAQ:PANW , and $NET.
📉 Gap Downs
Reaction to earnings/guidance:
MYX:NE
Other news:
NASDAQ:MPLT Announces Positive Results from Phase 2 ZEPHYR Trial of ML-007C-MA in Schizophrenia but the once-daily version of the drug completely failed the trial, missing statistical significance on the primary endpoint.
Gas/Oil stocks falls on “conditional” pause in strikes between the US and Iran : NYSE:EQNR NYSE:BP NYSE:SHEL AMEX:USO
NASDAQ:LEGN Announces CEO Transition
‼️ Additional
The “conditional” pause in strikes between the US and Iran has continued since last Friday.
-- The US has halted its strikes, and Iran is reciprocating.
-- Iran and the US continue to hold talks through mediator countries — IRNA, citing an official representative of Iran’s Foreign Ministry.
-- The head of CENTCOM recommended that Trump halt strikes against Iran in the Strait of Hormuz area, as they had reached the limit of their effectiveness — Axios.
-- #Oil = -10% over two trading sessions.
The US Q2 2026 earnings season continues.
-- Among the companies that have already reported, 80% have beaten revenue expectations, above the 5-year average of 70% and the 10-year average of 68%.
-- 86% have beaten EPS expectations, above the 5-year average of 78% and the 10-year average of 76%. — FactSet
After its Shanghai IPO, chipmaker CXMT became China’s largest company by market capitalization at $543.5 billion, with shares rising 500% in their trading debut.
Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA is in talks to provide OpenAI with around $250 billion in financing to build a large-scale data center — WSJ.
NASDAQ:AAPL shares have outperformed the Nasdaq by 22% this month, marking a 20-year record.
📋 List of tickers involved:
LSE:AZN NASDAQ:BKR $T NASDAQ:QBTS XETR:SAP NASDAQ:RKLB NASDAQ:SKHY NASDAQ:MU NASDAQ:SNDK NASDAQ:WDC NASDAQ:STX NASDAQ:ARGX NASDAQ:FBRX NASDAQ:TRAX NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:META NYSE:IBM NYSE:DELL NYSE:HPE NYSE:CRM NASDAQ:ADBE NASDAQ:CRWD NASDAQ:CSCO NASDAQ:PANW NYSE:NET MYX:NE NASDAQ:MPLT NYSE:EQNR NYSE:BP NYSE:SHEL AMEX:USO NASDAQ:LEGN NASDAQ:AAPL
Best regards – hi2morrow team.
Long
SPY Trapped at $738: Who Breaks First?
WAIT. SPY is sitting on support, but buyers still have not repaired the damage.
1 Hour
The 1 hour chart still favors sellers. SPY failed near $750, broke below the $744 area, and the rebound from $735 could not hold above $742 to $743.
Now price is back near $738 and moving sideways. That tells me selling pressure has slowed, but it does not yet show a real reversal.
For the bigger picture to improve, SPY needs to reclaim $744. Until that happens, rallies can still be treated as lower highs.
15 Minute
The 15 minute chart is trying to form accumulation near $735 to $738. Buyers defended the low twice, but every bounce has stalled beneath the descending resistance.
The immediate battle is between $738 and $740. If SPY can push through $740, it could test $741 to $742. That is where I expect sellers to become active again.
A loss of $738 would weaken the accumulation idea and put $736 to $735 back in play.
GEX
The GEX map places the high volume level directly at $738, which explains why price keeps returning to this area. It may act like a magnet until one side takes control.
Above price, resistance is stacked at $739, $740, $741, $742 and $745.
Below price, support sits at $736 and $735. If those levels fail, the next downside areas are $732, $731 and $730.
Put positioning is very heavy, so a break under support could move faster than traders expect.
My Setup
For calls, I would wait for SPY to reclaim $740 and hold it. The first targets would be $741 to $742, then $744.
For puts, I would watch for rejection near $740 to $742 or a clean break below $738. The downside targets would be $736 and $735.
My read is that SPY is trying to build a floor, but it is doing so underneath resistance. Would you trust the accumulation near $738, or wait for $744 to be reclaimed first?
Long 
Weekly Bias — 27 JulyWhat would change the outlook back to bullish?
NASDAQ:QQQ would need to reclaim $686 quickly
Reclaim the 20d & 50d EMAs
Recover $707–$708 (the 78.6% retracement)
Eventually break & hold above $724
Until these levels are reclaimed, rallies are more likely to be viewed as countertrend bounces within a corrective phase
Heading into a week dominated by NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:META , NASDAQ:AAPL & NASDAQ:AMZN earnings, NASDAQ:QQQ is sitting on a critical support area around $682–$686
Strong AI-driven earnings & favorable guidance could produce a false breakdown & reclaim of the flag, but if those reports disappoint, the measured downside opens toward the $655 area (50% retracement) & potentially the $648 region (200d EMA)
Makes this week's earnings a likely inflection point for determining whether the recent breakdown becomes a bear trap or the beginning of a deeper correction
Rather than expecting a straight trend, I'd expect multiple large rotations around Wednesday afternoon & Thursday evening
NASDAQ:QQQ
Daily trend has deteriorated from bullish expansion into a corrective phase
Friday closed below the 20d EMA, below the 50d EMA & below the 78.6% retracement (~$708)
Price is now sitting just above the June swing support near $682-$686
MACD continues to expand negatively
RSI has broken below 40 with no bullish divergence
Stoch RSI is pinned near zero, showing momentum is stretched
Volume increased on the decline, suggesting distribution rather than simple profit-taking
AMEX:SPY
Considerably stronger than NASDAQ:QQQ
Still holding above its 50d EMA
Relative strength continues to favor the broader market over technology
If AMEX:SPY loses $739, sellers likely accelerate
AMEX:IWM
Also stronger than NASDAQ:QQQ
Still above the 50d EMA
Small caps continue outperforming large-cap tech
Tells me this remains primarily a large-cap technology correction
Intermediate trend is still bullish as long as NASDAQ:QQQ ultimately holds roughly $675-$680, so lose that area & the correction likely extends toward the 200d EMA
Major liquidity remains around $680, $675 & $670
These are where larger buyers are most likely to defend
This is now a correction inside a larger bull trend rather than a bear market
Oil/Mid-East is probably the largest bullish macro development entering Monday
Oil collapsing → inflation expectations soften → yields should stabilize or fall → large-cap growth gets support
Offsets much of Friday's risk-off selling
There is a reasonable probability of a relief bounce Monday
The key question is whether buyers can hold the gains into Wednesday's FOMC
Monday — positioning
Tuesday — compression
Wednesday morning — range
Wednesday 2 PM — volatility explosion
Wednesday 2:30 PM — direction decided
I'd avoid chasing any move before Warsh
This week represents nearly one-quarter of NASDAQ:QQQ 's market cap
NASDAQ:MSFT is the most important report
Cloud
AI
CapEx
Guidance
NASDAQ:META
AI spending
Advertising
Margins
NASDAQ:AMZN
AWS
Consumer
CapEx
NASDAQ:AAPL
Services
China
iPhone demand
Collectively these 4 names can easily move NASDAQ:QQQ several percent
Based on the current volatility regime & the weekly options pricing as of Friday's close
NASDAQ:QQQ approximately ±18-22 points or $663–$707
A move outside that range likely requires a major earnings surprise or an unexpectedly dovish/hawkish FOMC
Current fair value approximately $695-$700
Above $700, momentum improves substantially
Below $680, correction deepens
Bullish (45%)
Oil stays weak
Yields fall
NASDAQ:MSFT & NASDAQ:META impress
Warsh neutral/dovish
$684 → $692 → $700 → $708 → $720
I'd scale profits into $708-$715, where supply from the recent breakdown becomes meaningful
Neutral (30%)
NASDAQ:QQQ trades $682-$700 through FOMC then waits for earnings
This is probably the most frustrating outcome for short-dated options because theta becomes a headwind
Bearish (25%)
Hawkish Warsh
Weak AI guidance
Higher yields
Break below $680
$675 → $668 → $660
Would likely invalidate any near-term bullish thesis
Despite Friday's technical damage, I don't think the intermediate-term bull trend is broken
This week has enough macro & earnings catalysts to produce a sharp relief rally, particularly if lower oil feeds into lower yields & AI earnings remain strong
The level I'd watch most closely is $700
A recovery & close back above that area would suggest Friday was primarily a liquidity flush
Failure to reclaim it; especially, after a positive Monday would increase the odds that the correction extends toward $675 before a more durable low forms Short 
