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SPY Lost 776.81 - The Breakout Failed.SPY Lost 776.81 - The Breakout Failed. SPY has decisively lost 776.81, trading 769.79 - well below both the breakout level and the 771.58 shelf beneath it. Monday's read was that a decisive close below 776.81 opened the downside, and that is what happened: the month-long breakout could not hold and has reversed. The chop on the line resolved down. Price is already extended below its levels, though, so this is a confirmed failure to respect, not a fresh entry to chase. Neutral. Resistance: 771.58 - the lost shelf, now resistance Key resistance: 776.81 - the failed breakout level Current price: 769.79 Support: 765.71 - the trend line below Key support: 759.67 - the prior high Structural floor: 753.22 - deeper support Two paths from here: It retests 771.58 from below and rejects. A failed breakout often retests the broken level from underneath. A rejection at 771.58 would confirm the reversal and open 765 and below. That retest is the cleaner tell, not the current extended drop. It reclaims 776.81 and the failure fails. If SPY snaps back above 776.81, the breakdown was itself a trap and the highs come back into view. Below 771.58 that is the less likely path, but the level defines it. SPY's breakout failed - it lost 776.81 decisively and is now below 771.58. The chop on the line resolved down as flagged. Price is extended into the drop, so the read is a confirmed failure to respect, not a level to chase. 771.58 is the line that now caps it. Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS Study, not financial advice.
AMEX:SPY
by virDeStatera
Research 18.08.2026🌏 Markets: AMEX:SPY -3.23 -0.42%(pre/m) NASDAQ:QQQ -8.15 -1.12%(pre/m) 🆕 Economic News: 08:15 USA – ADP Employment Change 08:30 USA – Building Permits / Housing Starts 09:15 USA – Industrial Production 10:00 USA – Pending Home Sales 16:30 USA – API Crude Oil Stock Change 📈 Gap Ups Reaction to earnings/guidance: NASDAQ:PONY NYSE:HD Other news: NASDAQ:AMLX Announces Positive Topline Results from Phase 3 LUCIDITY Clinical Trial of Avexitide in Post-Bariatric Hypoglycemia NYSE:BABA Stock Rises as Qwen AI Model Escalates Battle With Meta $VISTA : investor Peter Thiel's hedge fund disclosed it had bought a stake in it. NASDAQ:WETO pumping after 1/100 split; NASDAQ:PFSA pumping after 1/4 split NASDAQ:XOS Secures U.S. Air Force Contract to Deliver Deployable Mobile Charging, Marking Defense Market Entry NASDAQ:ENRD : Einride announced a major expansion involving 500 Tesla Semi trucks for its North American fleet, including freight operations for Amazon and other customers. NASDAQ:DUOL : DA Davidson upgraded Duolingo from Neutral to Buy and raised its price target to $160 from $130, citing improving monetization and a long growth runway. The stock was up about 3.5% pre-market in later indications. NASDAQ:AAPL : Rothschild & Co Redburn upgraded Apple from Neutral to Buy and made an unusually large price-target increase to $400 from $260, citing the upcoming foldable iPhone, Services strength and potential changes to Apple's AI strategy. 📉 Gap Downs Reaction to earnings/guidance: NASDAQ:BIDU NYSE:FN NASDAQ:VNET NASDAQ:HSAI NYSE:KLAR NASDAQ:XP NYSE:AS ASX:BHP NASDAQ:RNW Other news: Chip stocks soured after global bond yields reached multi-year highs: NASDAQ:LITE NASDAQ:WDC NYSE:COHR NASDAQ:MRVL NASDAQ:SKHY NASDAQ:SNDK NASDAQ:MU NASDAQ:INTC NASDAQ:ARM NASDAQ:ASML NYSE:TSM NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:NVDA Nvidia to finance $105B for an OpenAI data center NASDAQ:SPCX just completed its $60 billion acquisition of Cursor. ‼️ Additional September 24: Xi Jinping will meet with Trump in Washington. -- This will mark the first visit by a Chinese leader to the US in 11 years. The yield on 30-year US Treasuries exceeded 5.31%, the highest level in 19 years. Nasdaq said it is in talks with regulators about launching “23/5” stock market trading. China is phasing out the use of Microsoft Windows by government agencies ahead of schedule — BBG. In August, corporate bond sales by the largest US companies reached a record $145.2 billion. LG Electronics is accelerating its robotics collaboration with Nvidia. NASDAQ:CBRS Stock Pops 15% As Wedbush Flags 'Progression' In $20B OpenAI Deal, GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast Boost 📋 List of tickers involved: NASDAQ:PONY NYSE:HD NASDAQ:AMLX NYSE:BABA $VISTA NASDAQ:WETO NASDAQ:PFSA NASDAQ:XOS NASDAQ:ENRD NASDAQ:DUOL NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:BIDU NYSE:FN NASDAQ:VNET NASDAQ:HSAI NYSE:KLAR NASDAQ:XP NYSE:AS ASX:BHP NASDAQ:RNW NASDAQ:LITE NASDAQ:WDC NYSE:COHR NASDAQ:MRVL NASDAQ:SKHY NASDAQ:SNDK NASDAQ:MU NASDAQ:INTC NASDAQ:ARM NASDAQ:ASML NYSE:TSM NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:SPCX NASDAQ:CBRS Best regards – hi2morrow team.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by hi2morrow_team
QQQ: Post-ATH Consolidation – Two Paths to $850Fresh ATHs are rarely the end of a move—they are often the beginning of the next one. QQQ has printed a new all-time high at $769 and has now entered a constructive correction phase. This is not a structural breakdown; it looks like a healthy consolidation designed to build energy for the next leg higher. We are not betting on direction. We are waiting for price to confirm its next intent. There are two distinct tactical windows I am watching for a high-probability long entry. 📌 The Two Entry Scenarios: 🟢 Scenario 1: Pullback & Price Action Confirmation. Wait for the price to rotate down into the green support zone at 708.00. Here, we are not buying the level blindly. We are looking for a confirmed candle rejection on the 4H timeframe—such as a bullish engulfing pattern, a long lower wick, or a structural shift (MSS) off this zone. This provides a low-risk entry with tight invalidation. 🟢 Scenario 2: Breakout of the ATH. If the market does not pull back and instead chooses to push through the major ATH level at 769.00 ( the 16 April high ), we wait for a clean candle close above it. A subsequent retest of this broken level as support would confirm the breakout. This is our trigger for the larger macro move. 📊 Trade Management & Invaildation: The invalidation for this entire bullish thesis is strictly set at 684.0. If the price breaks down below this level with conviction, the structural setup is completely void, and we stand aside. Once the position is active, our primary directional target is set at 850.0. As always, we will re-evaluate and update the target as the market structure evolves. 💡 Execution Mindset: No FOMO. No guessing. We do not chase the ATH, and we do not catch the falling knife blindly. We let the 4H timeframe provide the confirmation—whether on a pullback or a breakout—and we react accordingly. ⚠️ Risk Warning: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. QQQ is a high-capitalization ETF heavily correlated with the broader Nasdaq-100 tech sector. Always manage your position sizing strictly according to your personal risk tolerance, respect your invalidation level without hesitation, and never risk capital you are not fully prepared to lose.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by pullbacksignal
SPY has gaps to fill downsideAMEX:SPY remains in a strong uptrend on the daily timeframe, trading inside a rising channel. The overall trend is still bullish as long as price continues making higher highs and higher lows. That said, after the recent breakout, I see several daily gaps below the current price that could act as potential retracement targets. The first area to watch is around $760–765, followed by $750–755, and finally $742–746. These zones also line up with previous resistance that may now act as support. The 50ema day (yellow line) sits around 750$ let's see if has a bounce near it.. If spy pulls back into those areas, I'd view them as potential buying opportunities rather than reasons to panic. A healthy retracement after a strong rally is normal, especially with multiple open gaps below. As long as price holds above the rising trendline (white line) and key moving averages 50ema yellow line, 100ema orange line, purple 200ema day etc, I remain bullish. However, if the trendline breaks with strong selling volume, I'd expect a deeper correction before the next leg higher. If it breaks above 780$ for multiple day's and don'T drop back under, I see it go to 800-850$
AMEX:SPYShort
by jazzioman
SPY Outlook Incomplete Bullish Cycle Supports AdvanceThe short‑term Elliott Wave outlook in the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) indicates that the cycle from the June 27 low continues to unfold as an impulse structure. From that low, wave ((i)) concluded at 756.22, followed by a corrective pullback in wave ((ii)) that ended at 725.96. The ETF then advanced in wave ((iii)), which developed as another impulse, as reflected in the 45‑minute chart. Within this sequence, wave (i) terminated at 746.55, while the subsequent dip in wave (ii) found support at 737.68. The rally extended further in wave (iii), reaching 776.85, before a modest retracement in wave (iv) ended at 771.29. The final leg, wave (v), carried prices to 779.37, thereby completing wave ((iii)) of higher degree. At present, the market is engaged in a corrective phase identified as wave ((iv)). This pullback is expected to unfold in either three or seven swings, serving to correct the cycle that began from the July 30 low. Once this correction is complete, the broader rally should resume. In the near term, the critical pivot remains at 725.96. As long as this level holds, the expectation is that any pullback will eventually locate support within a three, seven, or eleven‑swing sequence. Such a development would provide the foundation for renewed upside momentum, reinforcing the view that the larger bullish cycle remains intact. This structure highlights the disciplined rhythm of Elliott Wave analysis, where corrections serve as pauses before the prevailing trend continues.
AMEX:SPY
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
$SPY & $SPX — Levels and Scenarios for Tuesday, August 18, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SPCFD:SPX — Levels and Scenarios for Tuesday, August 18, 2026 📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET) 8:15 AM | ADP Weekly Employment Change | Previous: 8.3K 8:30 AM | Housing Starts | Forecast: 1.34M | Previous: 1.43M 9:15 AM | Industrial Production m/m | Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.1% 10:00 AM | Pending Home Sales m/m | Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: -5.4% ⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. 📌 #ADP #HousingStarts #IndustrialProduction #PendingHomeSales
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Mvll“And I looked, and behold, MVLL had risen again from the depths and approached the place appointed for the gathering.” For it is written: “Let him that thinketh he standeth take heed lest he fall.” — 1 Corinthians 10:12 Many shall see the recovery and call it the beginning of a greater ascent. And as the price rises, their confidence shall rise with it. Yet above lies the place where patience shall meet opportunity. There the shorts shall be gathered. The market may climb further before the appointed hour, for not every judgment comes immediately. But when the gathering is complete, the direction shall be revealed. And beneath them stands the mark: 22. For it is written: “The end of a matter is better than its beginning.” — Ecclesiastes 7:8 The rise shall test patience. The reversal shall test conviction. And the destination shall test whether the prophecy was understood. The gathering is above. The appointed destination is 22.
NASDAQ:MVLLShort
by themanfromthefuture
SPY Framework - August 17, 2026SPY Framework — August 17 Grading the last issue. On Aug 10, 771.66-774.25 was flagged as the pivot zone — a hold above pointing toward 779. Price held, extended through it, and pushed as far as the 780 area before rotating back. SPY now sits back inside that structure, testing it from above rather than below. Where we are. That retest resolves to a tightened zone: 772.19-774.69. The same area that capped price as resistance through early August is now being tested as support — the classic role reversal that follows a level being broken and revisited. Above. No defined structural level yet. This move has outrun the levels behind it, and it'll take further price action to define what comes next on the upside. That's an honest read of where things stand, not a gap in the work. Below: 765.66. If 772.19-774.69 fails to hold as support, this is the level that matters next. Posture. This is a level to watch react, not chase either direction. Fade weakness that fails to hold 772.19; a clean push back above 774.69 shifts the lean toward the zone continuing to act as support. A note on how this works. These bi-weekly posts mark the key structures — the levels that matter most over a two-week view. Markets don't stay that tidy in between: secondary levels come into play, volatility shifts the picture, and the zones above can move before the next scheduled issue. When that happens, I'll post limited updates to keep the record honest — not a constant stream, just enough to reflect what's actually changed. One practical note: the next update lands September 8, just after Labor Day — expect lighter volume and choppier behavior around the holiday, which can distort how cleanly these levels read in the short term.
AMEX:SPY
by AspenTrading
1
SPY Rejects August 13 Highs —Is a Pullback Due as $780 Call WallAMEX:SPY recently tested the heavy $780 Call Wall, acting as major overhead resistance and capping immediate upside potential. Gamma Flip Active: Price action has shifted into the Gamma Flip Zone. In negative or zero-gamma regimes, market makers switch from buying dips to selling into weakness, accelerating volatility. VIX Bottoming: VIX compressed to the $14 level—a historical extreme that frequently marks exhaustion in equity rallies—and has now printed a bullish confirmation candle off the lows.
AMEX:SPYShort
by QuantXInvest
SPY / S&P 500 — Breakout or Breakdown at the Decision ZoneBased strictly on your 15-minute SPY chart, price is around 776.35, consolidating between a clearly defined Supply Zone near 776.90–777.10 and Demand Zone around 774.95–775.45. 🟢 Bullish Trading Plan Trigger: A decisive 15-minute close above 777.10. If price breaks and holds above the supply zone, the next upside levels on your chart are: 🎯 778.56 🎯 779.67 🎯 780.86 Best confirmation: Breakout → retest of 777.00–777.10 → bullish rejection → continuation. 🔴 Bearish Trading Plan Trigger: Failure at the supply zone followed by a breakdown below the 774.95–775.00 demand area. Potential downside levels: 🔻 774.06 🔻 772.67 🔻 771.14 A clean break below demand would indicate that sellers have taken control of the short-term structure. ⚪ The No-Trade Zone 775.00–777.00 This is essentially the range where price is currently consolidating. Rather than forcing a trade in the middle: Above 777.10 → Look for bullish continuation Below 774.95 → Look for bearish continuation Inside the range → Wait 📌 Globus Capitas View The interesting part of this setup isn't predicting whether SPY goes up or down. It's identifying where the market has to prove itself. Supply is the ceiling. Demand is the floor. The breakout decides the next move. Don't chase the candle—trade the confirmation. Technical levels are based on the attached chart and are for educational/technical-analysis purposes, not guaranteed trading signals.
AMEX:SPY
by globuscapitas
SPY Reclaimed 776.81 But Is Chopping At The Line.SPY Reclaimed 776.81 But Is Chopping At The Line. SPY dipped below 776.81 on Friday, reclaimed it over the weekend, and is trading 777.33 - back above the breakout level but chopping right on it rather than extending. The month-long ceiling turned support is holding, but the breakout has not gone anywhere: price is oscillating around the level with the hourly conviction bearish beneath a bullish higher timeframe. A held level, not a running breakout. After the whipsaw at this line, the read stays Neutral until price pushes decisively away from 776.81 with the surface aligned. Resistance: 779.37 - the high Key resistance: 782.00 - open air above Current price: 777.33 Support: 776.81 - the breakout level, the pivot Key support: 771.58 - first shelf below Structural floor: 765.71 - the trend line Two paths from here: It holds 776.81 and finally extends. If SPY pushes clear of 776.81 and the hourly surface rotates up to match the higher timeframe, the breakout resumes toward 779 and 782. It needs to leave the level behind, not sit on it. It fails back under 776.81 again. Chopping on a level with a divergent surface can resolve down. A decisive close below 776.81 puts 771.58 and 765 back in play. The chop is the tell that the breakout has not proven itself. SPY is holding above 776.81 but chopping on the line rather than extending - the breakout is intact but unproven. It needs to pull away from the level with conviction to mean something; sitting on the line is not a trend. Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS Study, not financial advice.
AMEX:SPY
by virDeStatera
Research 17.08.2026🌏 Markets: AMEX:SPY +1.04 0.13%(pre/m) NASDAQ:QQQ +3.76 0.51%(pre/m) 🆕 Economic News: 08:30 USA – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 10:00 USA – Housing Market Index 10:00 USA – Net Long-term TIC Flows 📈 Gap Ups Reaction to earnings/guidance: NASDAQ:HTHT Other news: NASDAQ:SNDK NASDAQ:MU NASDAQ:SKHY Rise Overnight: Analyst Target Hikes, KOSPI Rebound Power Surge NYSE:BABA plans to sell its game development unit Lingxi Games to private equity firm Trustar Capital for $2 billion. 📉 Gap Downs Reaction to earnings/guidance: Other news: NYSE:SNAP shares tumble as court ruling and insider selling deepen investor concerns US senators announced the launch of an investigation into gaming platform Roblox NYSE:RBLX , where they say predators are contacting children in order to commit crimes against them. ‼️ Additional Goldman: Markets are positioned too aggressively for a more hawkish Fed, while in reality inflation is falling faster than expected. 📋 List of tickers involved: NASDAQ:HTHT NASDAQ:SNDK NASDAQ:MU NASDAQ:SKHY NYSE:BABA NYSE:SNAP NYSE:RBLX Best regards – hi2morrow team.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by hi2morrow_team
2- How I choose the stocks to followVery broad topic, I hope I manage to put the topics in order --What to look for?-- When looking for something (not just in trading but in any field), the starting point is to clearly define what you need because this avoids wasting time in the search or ending up with the wrong thing You need to have a clear idea of what kind of stock you want to look for based on your way of trading or investing, a few examples to explain better: -If I want a stock to buy and "leave there", you should aim for something that tends to always go up even if little by little, like an S&P 500 ETF or an insurance stock -If I look for something more dynamic, you should aim for sectors with the highest hype, like AI currently or EVs a couple of years ago -If we prefer shorting, we should look for stocks with a high P/E that might have run up a lot (too much) due to some rumors/expectations This is to say that there is no good or bad stock, but everything depends on what interests the individual trader Every stock has its own characteristics (which are very many) so I try to identify the main ones that I give the most weight to --Stock Characteristics: 1- Business and sector of belonging-- The most important characteristics of all, in my opinion, are the business and the sector of belonging What the company produces or sells is absolutely the first thing I evaluate in the analysis of a stock; I read the company description carefully.. I wonder if there is a demand for that service or product and above all if there could be more or less of it in the future It is also important to understand if the company is a leader for its products/services and possibly who the main competitors are Rarely does a stock move alone (something that mostly happens following specific news or quarterly earnings) Much more often a stock moves together with its entire sector and therefore it is important to understand which group it belongs to in order to evaluate how it will be influenced, some examples The most current one.. the race to provide new AI services requires datacenters, electricity, and servers so all these sectors are growing strongly as well as the stocks belonging to them If a new conflict starts and the ones that benefit are defense and drone stocks because many of the weapons are single-use (missiles, drones, munitions) and therefore need to be continuously replenished Or, in the opposite scenario, if an interest rate hike is expected, sectors that rely heavily on debt will be penalized more, like construction In the pharmaceutical sector, however, there is often an exception: when good news arrives for the development of a drug, direct competitors drop The sector of belonging can also bring a certain seasonality, for example, luxury stocks tend to rise near Christmas Basically, I think that before choosing a stock you need to choose the sector to look for it in very well because it will have a huge influence on the future trend of the stock --Stock Characteristics: 2- Capitalization-- In second place in importance for me is the size of the company In the same sector there are always companies of different sizes, ranging from "giants" to "startups" The giants help identify the direction of the sector and often act as standard-bearers, for example Nvidia for semiconductors or Hermès for luxury The size of the company brings another important factor with it: liquidity With the "giants" there is much more stock trading and therefore the bid-ask spread in the book is much smaller than that of a mid or small cap (which would be the difference between the selling and buying price) Another important factor is that on large stocks there are more institutional investors (banks, funds, and similar) and this leads to a more predictable price movement thanks to the study of volumes Large companies also tend to have a more gradual price movement with lower volatility because thousands/millions of shares are required to move the price in one direction The main characteristic of small/mid caps, on the other hand, lies precisely in their high volatility; they can easily make daily movements of 6-10% which entail rapid gains (or losses) --Stock Characteristics: 3- Current Valuation-- Third place in the things I look at is the current price All stocks fluctuate over time and it is important to understand if we are in a moment of overvaluation or undervaluation Hardly ever does a stock always go up or down (there are some exceptions here haha), in general we move from periods where interest is higher to ones where it is ignored by the market Here I look mainly at the chart trend, the revenue trend, and the current P/E (or Forward P/E as is fashionable now) If I enter long with a stock hovering around its highs, the probability of taking home a good +30% is low (though there are many factors to consider, I will talk about it in the future) On the contrary, entering at the lows opens the way to devastating gains like a double; I take the example of the SW SaaS sector which was sold off heavily just for "fear" that it would be replaced by AI—I work in the sector and I know very well that this is total nonsense. Stocks are often accompanied by "expert" rating recommendations, over time I stopped looking at them because I got the idea that they are only used to manipulate the quotation for the exclusive advantage of the bank/broker --Stock Characteristics: 4- Historical Trend-- The historical trend by looking at the chart is very important to me even if it is a close relative of the previous point, I would put it in fourth place The first thing I look at is "how it moves" on the monthly chart; whether it has an increasing, decreasing, or lateral movement Then I observe the trend of revenue and quarterly reports in past years What I try to understand in this phase is whether it is a growing or declining company (declining companies I exclude and move on to other things) Certain chart patterns then lead me to exclude a stock a priori; when I see a dome-shaped ("panettone") or pine-tree chart, I generally move on to something else These are patterns linked to past speculative bubbles, PayPal or NIO or Enphase come to mind. BlackBerry could be an exception but only because it has transformed its business --- My Research --- There are various ways I use to look for stocks to add to my watchlists 1) The main one is certainly reading news and articles: When I have time I like to keep updated on news and in particular on technology For example, I had read that the USA had fallen behind China and Russia in space investments and that they would have to allocate a lot of funds to make up for the gap. This led me to delve deeper and consequently aim for some space stocks with which I made great gains Sometimes I read news associated with the stocks I follow and this leads me to discover interesting competitors and companies in the same sector Even generic news heard on the TV news can be useful if you reflect, an example: We hear a lot about drone attacks.. so I asked myself: who are the main producers since so many are being destroyed? Who sells or produces the infrastructure to guide them (GPS, software, companies)? Who produces the defenses that are increasingly vital? Each of these questions is followed by research (which is easy with AI nowadays) and therefore names to put on the watchlist For the news I listen to, I often ask myself: "who gains and who loses from this situation?" To mention another one, two years ago I had heard about the obesity drug: it was said that demand was much higher than production capacity.. this led me to delve deeper and then invest in Eli Lilly and Novo making super gains Another example: soon Robotaxis and autonomous driving cars will arrive in mass.. who produces the necessary HW and software? (the right answer could be rewarded with devastating gains) To sum up, I think that if we are attentive to everything that surrounds us every day, we could catch great profit or investment opportunities! 2) The TradingView Community: There are thousands (millions) of stocks and it is unthinkable to look at them all, so over time I have selected other traders who operate similarly to me and I read their posts and ideas Then I look at the chart myself and make my own evaluations, but this helps save time and discover new stocks In some cases, other traders indicate some stocks in chat that they think are good or ask me for advice on stocks I don't know and make me discover interesting opportunities 3) App that highlights hot stocks (I don't know if I can cite it.. just search for it) For a couple of months I have been using this app that highlights stocks with the highest volume of messages exchanged This helps me intercept those stocks where there is high hype Furthermore, the newsletter provides me with an end-of-day summary with some clarifications on what happened and what triggered it 4) Screening I use it little, but occasionally I do a search for stocks with increasing volumes to see where institutional investors are putting their money -- My Watchlists-- The stocks that pass the selection are then put into watchlists I have a main watchlist containing portfolio stocks and "hot" ones that have a setup that could trigger in the short term The others I put in other consultation watchlists that I subdivide by country (USA, Italy, Germany) Inside each of these I create sections where I subdivide stocks by sector of belonging, ordered by capitalization, putting big caps at the top and small caps at the bottom There might still be something to write, but by now I have reached an exaggerated length; in case of doubts, feel free to put your question in the comments If this article is also appreciated, I will proceed with the next one: "3- How I decide my entries" Thanks everyone for the time dedicated Balinor
CBOE:IGVEducation
by balinor
2
$SPY & $SPX — Levels and Scenarios for Monday, August 17, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SPCFD:SPX — Levels and Scenarios for Monday, August 17, 2026 📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET) 8:30 AM | Empire State Manufacturing Index | Forecast: 10.6 | Previous: 15.6 10:00 AM | NAHB Housing Market Index | Forecast: 33 | Previous: 34 4:00 PM | TIC Long-Term Purchases | Forecast: 151.4B | Previous: 232.7B ⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. 📌 #EmpireStateManufacturing #NAHB
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
SPY — Sunday Market Prep | August 17–21 The market enters the new week sitting in an interesting position. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,785.76, down just 0.17% after setting a record close the day before at 7,798.99. The index still finished the week higher by roughly 0.4%. In other words, we are near record territory, but Friday showed that buyers are not operating without resistance. Sunday futures have done very little to change that picture. S&P 500 futures were essentially flat/slightly higher after opening, which gives me no reason to force a directional conclusion before Monday. That fits the technical map well. The immediate battlefield Friday finished around 776, almost directly between the important areas I am watching. 778 remains the primary upper decision area. Below current price, I have a cluster of projected agreement at: 773 → 772 → 771 That creates a fairly simple framework. Price is currently between decisions. That is why the yellow scenario remains my highest-probability starting condition. I am not saying SPY will spend the entire week chopping. I am saying that, until one side proves control, I think negotiation between the current structure and 778 is more defensible than assuming immediate expansion. The bullish case For me, bullish does not mean: SPY trades above 778 for a few minutes. I want to see the market earn it: break → acceptance → structure If 778 is reclaimed and price begins establishing itself above that area rather than repeatedly falling back underneath, the green scenarios become substantially more credible. From there, the chart opens into the low 780s and eventually the larger 784–786 area illustrated by the stronger bullish path. The important distinction is that the first bullish move is not the trade thesis by itself. Acceptance above the battlefield is the evidence. The bearish case The bearish thesis also needs sequential deterioration. A rejection around 778 gets my attention, but it does not automatically activate the larger red scenario. The more important information would be: rejection → 773 fails → reclaim fails Then the lower Projected AOAs at 772 and 771 become progressively more important. If those areas continue producing reactions or negotiation, the market may simply be finding lower balance. If they begin failing sequentially, however, the red scenario gains considerably more credibility and the deeper downside paths toward the upper/mid 760s become relevant. Again: One red candle is not the thesis. Structural deterioration is. Why this week could stay unresolved early The economic calendar becomes much more interesting after Monday. Monday begins relatively lightly with the Empire State Manufacturing Survey at 8:30 a.m. ET. Tuesday is considerably busier. Housing starts/building permits arrive at 8:30, Home Depot reports, industrial production and capacity utilization arrive at 9:15, and pending home sales are scheduled for 10:00. Wednesday may be the most important policy day. Target and Lowe's report before/around the opening session, followed by the July 28–29 FOMC minutes at 2:00 p.m. ET. Thursday continues the consumer and economic read with Walmart and Deere earnings, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey at 8:30, and the Census Bureau's second-quarter Advance Services Report at 10:00. One calendar clarification: Jackson Hole is not this week. The Kansas City Fed's 2026 symposium is scheduled for August 27–29. The fundamental tension Last week's information did not give the market a clean one-directional macro story. Thursday's inflation data helped reduce immediate fears of another Fed hike and supported the record close. Friday then brought weaker consumer data and pushed the market slightly back from those highs. That makes this week's major retail earnings especially useful. Home Depot, Target, Lowe's and Walmart effectively give the market several different views into the U.S. consumer. After Friday's weaker retail-sales picture, I expect investors to care not only about headline earnings but also what management teams say about spending behavior and demand. That is an inference, but it is why I think these reports matter beyond the individual stocks. The wildcard: Iran and oil The geopolitical risk has not disappeared. U.S.-Iran peace efforts remain stalled, and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has still not fully normalized. Brent crude finished Friday at $88.52, up 1.67% for the session. That matters because this is one catalyst capable of bypassing a calm technical progression. A meaningful de-escalation could quickly relieve pressure through oil and inflation expectations. A renewed escalation could create exactly the type of abnormal repricing represented by the more aggressive downside scenario. I do not assign either outcome high confidence. I simply refuse to leave it off the map. My scenario ranking Sunday evening Yellow — highest-probability starting condition Negotiation around the current structure with repeated tests of 778 and the mid-770s. Neither side has earned control yet. Green — strongest normal bullish resolution 778 breaks, gains acceptance, and begins acting more like support than resistance. That opens the path toward higher structure. Red — credible but needs deterioration Failure of current structure followed by loss of 773 and unsuccessful reclaim attempts. The 772/771 cluster then becomes the key lower battlefield. The aggressive green and deep-red paths remain tail scenarios. I want substantially more evidence before giving either serious probability. What would change my mind? That is the entire purpose of this map. I do not need to predict Friday's closing price on Sunday night. I need to know what information changes the thesis. Above 778 with acceptance: bullish probability increases. Repeated rejection at 778: upside remains unresolved. Hold 773–771: lower structure is still negotiating. Lose 773, then 772/771 with failed reclaims: bearish probability rises substantially. Remain trapped between the decision areas: no trade may be the correct trade. And this week especially, I want to distinguish probability from tradability. The most probable outcome may initially be chop. That does not make chop the best place to trade. I would rather wait for the market to show which side is gaining control and take the cleaner portion of the move than spend Monday trying to predict a weekly direction before the evidence exists. The dotted paths are visual illustrations of possible scenario families, not candle-for-candle forecasts. Monday does not have to tell us where Friday finishes. It may only tell us which decision area matters next.
AMEX:SPY
by heavydiligence