ETF market
GLD: Week of Aug 10See levels and key areas for this week:
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USO (Oil Proxy): Week of Aug 10See levels and key areas for this week:
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SMH: Week of Aug 10See levels and key areas for this week:
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RSP/SPY Ratio (Market Participation): Week of Aug 10See levels and key areas for this week:
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Market Rotation Cheat Sheet: Week of Aug 10See levels and key areas for this week:
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SpyI think there's a slim chance at a minor new high next week then from Mid August into September we continue selling
TVC:DJI
Monthly and weekly RSI +70
Daily RSI negative divergence
Bearish ascending broadening wedge
I don't think a new high comes on TVC:DJI , I think we have a 5% draw down back to support and when that goes we sell back below 50k
NASDAQ:QQQ
Pushed up to resistance here
Zoomed in you can see Vol fell off a cliff here at resistance
and lastly looks like we just retested diamond support.
NASDAQ:QQQ monthly candles
Junes was a dragon fly doji reversal
July confirmed June's topping candles
Usually by the End of the 2nd week
(August 15) You will start to see the monthly trend play out. If we hold under 725 Then this market is finished. If NASDAQ:QQQ pushes above 730, then we will make one more high to 737-740 but like I said, as we get closer and closer towards the end of the month you will start to see things follow what has been a bearish trend
TVC:VIX has been Cuckish lately, we tagged bottom of a downtrend and most likely we will spike back to 20 in the next week or so
AMEX:SPY daily RSI.. Divergence was hit Thursday and spy pulled back
If we open up above 775 Monday then they will likely push this to 780 by Wed, from there I am bearish
If we open up below 767 then 760 comes and below 760 is death.
767-773 is chop and traps
TQQQ: Structural Retracement within Active Bearish SequenceNASDAQ:TQQQ is currently navigating an active downward leg originating from Point B, with the primary sequence target at red C near $44 remaining open and unreached. Despite the recent upside push, the broader market structure remains oriented downward as price works through this ongoing corrective phase.
Price is presently executing an upward retracement, pressing directly into the red BC area between $72 and $76. This push represents a key structural test within the larger move, as price interacts with immediate local supply before determining the next directional expansion.
Unless price manages to extend beyond Point B and completely shift the macro context, the dominant structural trajectory favors a path toward the lower objectives. A continuation downward keeps the open red C destination and the primary grey WCL zone firmly in focus.
QQQ Trading Opportunity! SELL!
My dear friends,
QQQ looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 723.03 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 703.22
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
XLY Breakout Front Run Swing TradeXLY continues to trade in a range below ATHs. With NASDAQ:AMZN as a primary driver for potential continued bullish momentum.
Stop is below higher pivot low
T1 is new ATHs
T2 is 139
T3 is 156
Final target is 197
This is a long term swing trade and will be managed accordingly
XLK breakout - Expect new all time highsXLK has effectively broken above the downtrend line that started on 6/3/26. After a break and retest the technology sector has continued to show resilience in wanting to push to the upside.
Our stop loss will go below the swing low prior to the trendline break.
T1 is new ATHs
T2 is 233
T3 is 251
Final target is 317
SPY Aug 10-15: Strong Breadth,But Price Near the Upper RailSPY enters the week of August 10–14 after closing Friday at 773.26.
But there is an important tension heading into the new week.
Market internals remain strongly bullish, but the weekly forecast distribution is centered well below current price.
The weekly equilibrium sits at 760.89–765.01, almost 8–12 points below Friday's close. At the same time, SPY finished Friday at 773.26, just below the weekly Upper Predictive Rail at 774.38.
That puts SPY at an important decision point immediately as the week begins.
A sustained move above 774.38 would show that buyers are successfully pushing beyond the model's expected weekly range. If that happens, the next upside area comes in around 782.62. Beyond that, 791.99 becomes the next major extension, while 809.60 represents the extreme upper end of the weekly distribution.
The other possibility is that SPY struggles around the upper rail.
If 774.38 rejects price, I would not immediately interpret that as a bearish reversal. With breadth this strong, the more important question would be how SPY behaves on a pullback.
The first area I would watch is around 765, where the upper end of the weekly equilibrium sits. The full equilibrium extends down to 760.89.
That creates a fairly large gap between current price and the model's center of gravity.
A controlled retracement into that area while market participation remains bullish could create a much better setup than chasing SPY near the upper weekly rail.
A decisive break below the equilibrium structure would change the picture. The weekly lower rail sits at 747.40, with 738.03 and 728.66 representing progressively deeper downside levels.
Weekly Decision Map
Upper Rail: 774.38
Upside Path: 782.62 → 791.99
Upper Extreme: 809.60
Equilibrium: 760.89–765.01
Lower Rail: 747.40
Downside Path: 738.03 → 728.66
Final Read
The weekly setup is unusual because the bullish market structure and price location are telling two different stories.
Breadth says the rally remains healthy.
The forecast says SPY is beginning the week near the upper edge of its expected range, with equilibrium considerably lower.
For me, 774.38 is the key level for the week.
Acceptance above it would confirm continued expansion and bring 782.62 into focus. Failure to clear it would increase the possibility of a rotation back toward 765.
The broader bias remains bullish, but the location matters. I would rather see the market prove itself above 774 or offer a controlled pullback than chase price at the upper rail.
SPY Monday: Bullish Internals, But Forecast Shifted Below PriceSPY closed Friday at 773.14 with the broader market structure still firmly bullish.
But Monday's price forecast is showing something very different.
Market internals remain strongly bullish, but the forecast distribution has shifted below current price.
That is the most important read going into Monday.
The daily equilibrium sits at 765.78–768.28, well below Friday's 773.14 close. The upper forecast cluster at 772.73–773.00 has effectively already been reached, which means SPY starts Monday above most of the model's expected daily structure.
The weekly model is showing a similar displacement, with its central structure also sitting below current price. I'll cover the weekly levels separately, but the fact that both horizons are showing the same shift makes the current price location more interesting.
For Monday, 773 becomes the immediate decision area.
If SPY holds around 773 and buyers continue to press higher, 777.45 is the next meaningful upside reference. A sustained move through that level would indicate continued expansion beyond the daily forecast distribution.
If SPY fails to hold Friday's closing area, I would first watch the 768 region. That is where several parts of Monday's forecast begin to converge. Below that, 765.78 becomes the next important reference, followed by 763.56–764.10.
A pullback into these areas would not automatically change the broader bullish structure. With market participation still this strong, it could simply be price rotating back toward the model's expected distribution after Friday's strength.
Monday Decision Map:
Friday Close: 773.14
Immediate Decision Area: 772.73–773.00
Upper Reference: 777.45
Equilibrium: 765.78–768.28
Lower Reference: 763.56–764.10
Final Read
Monday starts with a clear divergence.
Breadth and participation remain strongly bullish, but the model's expected price distribution sits below the market.
That doesn't make me bearish. It does make chasing strength less attractive.
Acceptance above 773 would favor continued expansion toward 777.45. Failure to hold the area increases the possibility of rotation back toward 768.
For now, the broader structure favors the bulls, but at this price location, I would rather buy a controlled pullback than chase an already extended move.
Why One Paper-Trading Screenshot Cannot Prove an EdgeA profitable paper-trading screenshot can be useful evidence, but it answers a much smaller question than most traders assume.
It can show that a workflow ran. It can show the instruments watched, the number of trades, the account state, and the recorded outcome. It cannot, by itself, establish a repeatable edge.
The seven questions behind one screenshot
Before treating a paper result as meaningful, ask:
1. Sample size: How many independent trades and market regimes are represented?
2. Selection: Were losing and ordinary sessions published with the same frequency?
3. Execution: Were realistic spreads, slippage, fees, latency, and partial fills modeled?
4. Capacity: Would the same orders fill at the displayed size in the relevant liquidity?
5. Risk: What were maximum drawdown, concentration, and time exposed?
6. Benchmark: Did the process add value versus a simple benchmark after risk and costs?
7. Reproducibility: Were the rules fixed before the session, or adjusted after seeing the outcome?
What paper trading is actually good for
Paper trading is strongest as a process test. It can reveal whether a trader or system follows entry rules, sizes consistently, manages exits, records decisions, and behaves correctly when nothing happens.
That is valuable. A system that cannot execute its own rules cleanly on paper is not ready for live capital.
But passing the process test is not the same as proving live profitability. Live markets add queue position, liquidity constraints, changing spreads, rejects, disconnects, fees, and emotional pressure.
A better evidence ladder
Evaluate trading evidence in stages:
• documented rules before the test;
• complete paper-session logs, including losses and inactivity;
• repeated results across regimes;
• realistic cost and fill assumptions;
• small, bounded live validation;
• a complete distribution rather than selected screenshots.
The right conclusion from one winning paper session is not “the edge is proven.” It is: “the process completed once; now inspect the rules, the risk, and the full history.”
Educational only. Paper trading is hypothetical, live execution can differ materially, and trading involves risk of loss.
SPY / SPX Weekly Outlook – Week 30 of 2026 (27-31 JUL)SPY / SPX WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
AMEX:SPY Weekly Recap Outlook
The published weekly blueprint presented three distinct Long Scenarios. Every single level played out with mechanical precision:
Key Level 2 (730): Retested perfectly for a +19 pts (+2.6%) rally to peak.
Put Wall (736): Bounced on queue for a +13 pts (+1.75%) expansion.
Key Level 1 (742): Clean retest yielding a +7 pts (+0.9%) move.
(For reference I have included last week's outlook on the right.)
Weekly Execution Metrics
Total Trades Taken: 7
Winning Trades: 6
Losing Trades: 1
Win Rate: 85.7%
Index Options: 4 Trades (3 Wins / 1 Loss)
Futures Desk: 2 Trades (2 Wins — ES & NQ)
Tactical Equities: 1 Trade (1 Win — NASDAQ:AAPL )
SPY / SPX WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
This Week's Scenarios / Prediction
Risk Index
This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short-term and long-term positioning decisions.
The Risk Index is currently signaling the potential for a short-term bounce. However, the broader short to medium-term environment continues to price in the possibility of another meaningful downside flush.
The long-term model remains firmly risk on, while the medium-term outlook continues to lean slightly bearish.
This combination typically creates elevated volatility, with both buyers and sellers competing aggressively for control before the market commits to its next larger directional move.
Given the potential for sharp acceleration in either direction and increasingly violent reversals, our primary focus this week will remain on disciplined execution, aggressive profit-taking, and strict risk management.
Rather than attempting to predict the next move, we will continue reacting to price only after confirmation at our predefined key levels.
Scenarios / Strategies
Long Scenario 1
KEY Level 1 (747)
This is the first major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 1-hour candle close below 745.
Long Scenario 2
KEY Level 2 (739.5)
This is the second major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 1-hour candle close below 735.
Short Scenario
Main Supply (753)
This area represents the primary supply zone and the upper boundary of the current trading range. A confirmed rejection from this level could provide a tactical short opportunity.
Trigger: Retest of the zone followed by a 1-hour bearish rejection candle.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 decline.
Invalidation: 4-hour candle close above 757.
Position Management Rules
1. Entry model: Unique for every scenario. Read each trigger carefully before entering a position.
2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly.
3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the position into a risk-free trade.
4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price.
5. Invalidation levels are unique to each scenario. Read them carefully.
6. SPY and QQQ charts use RTH (Regular Trading Hours). ES and NQ futures charts use ETH (Electronic Trading Hours).
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
QQQ / NDX Weekly Outlook – Week 31 of 2026 (03-07 AUG)QQQ / NDX WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
NASDAQ:QQQ Weekly Recap Outlook
Long Scenario 2: Price found support almost to the exact tick at Key Level 2 (663) before reversing sharply higher.
Performance: Rallied +33.4 points (+4.9%), delivering a textbook execution of our macro map.
(For reference I have included last week's outlook on the right.)
UA CAPITAL Weekly Execution Metrics
Total Trades Taken: 7
Winning Trades: 6
Losing Trades: 1
Win Rate: 85.7%
Index Options: 4 Trades (3 Wins / 1 Loss)
Futures Desk: 2 Trades (2 Wins — ES & NQ)
Tactical Equities: 1 Trade (1 Win — NASDAQ:AAPL )
This Week's Scenarios / Prediction
Risk Index
This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short-term and long-term positioning decisions.
The Risk Index is currently signaling the potential for a short-term bounce. However, the broader short to medium-term environment continues to price in the possibility of another meaningful downside flush.
The long-term model remains firmly risk on, while the medium-term outlook continues to lean slightly bearish.
This combination typically creates elevated volatility, with both bulls and bears competing aggressively for control before a larger directional move eventually develops. Because directional moves can accelerate quickly and reversals may become increasingly violent, our focus this week will remain on aggressive profit-taking and disciplined risk management.
Scenarios / Strategies
Long Scenario 1
KEY Level 1 (712)
This is the first major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 1-hour candle close below 705.
Long Scenario 2
Pivot Zone (688)
This is the primary pivot level to monitor. If price retraces into this area and confirms support, it may provide another high-probability long opportunity.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 4-hour candle close below 680.
Long Scenario 3
Swing Level (712)
A confirmed breakout above this level would suggest that bullish momentum is strengthening and that price may begin rotating toward the higher supply zones.
Trigger: Price must break above 712 and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close above the Swing Level.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 1-hour candle close below 705.
Short Scenario 1
Swing Level (705)
This area represents the primary short-term supply zone. A confirmed rejection from this level may provide a tactical short opportunity.
Trigger: Retest of the level followed by a 1-hour bearish rejection candle.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 decline.
Invalidation: 1-hour candle close above 712.
Short Scenario 2
Main Supply (735)
This is the major higher-timeframe supply zone. If price rallies into this area and confirms rejection, tactical short exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Retest of the zone followed by a 1-hour bearish rejection candle.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 decline.
Invalidation: 4-hour candle close above 744.
Position Management Rules
1. Entry model: Unique for every scenario. Read each setup carefully before entering.
2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly.
3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the position into a risk-free trade.
4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price.
5. Every scenario has its own invalidation level. Respect them without exception.
6. SPY & QQQ charts use RTH (Regular Trading Hours). ES & NQ futures charts use ETH (Electronic Trading Hours).
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
QQQ: Forecast & Technical Analysis
The analysis of the QQQ chart clearly shows us that the pair is finally about to tank due to the rising pressure from the sellers.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
SPY My Opinion! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the SPY next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 773.14
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 761.11
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
BOAT | Continued growth ETF- Timeframe: Weekly
- Trade type: Buy stop order
- Price: 44.48
- Take Profit: Open
- Stop Loss: 42.41 (-4.70 %)
Idea: Long on a breakout above last week's high - bullish momentum continuation.
Entry: Buy stop above last week’s high.
Stop-loss: Below the low of the same candle.
If the weekly candle closes below this level, the trade is invalidated.
Take Profit: Trailing stop following the lows of new weekly candles.
SPY Weekly Levels - First Week of AugustSPY enters the week of Aug 3–7 at an important decision point. The AI trend remains constructive after another strong earnings season led by Microsoft and Meta, but the market is now transitioning from earnings-driven momentum to macro catalysts. Economic data and Treasury yields are likely to determine whether buyers can extend the rally or pause after recent gains.
The AI equilibrium sits between 737.9 and 740.94. As long as SPY holds this zone, the broader structure remains constructive.
A sustained move above 749.47 would signal fresh momentum and open the path toward 755.55. If buyers continue to press higher, 764.08 becomes the next major upside objective.
On the downside, failure to hold the equilibrium zone shifts the focus to 726.33. Below that, the structure weakens toward 717.8. Only a decisive break below 709.27 would suggest a much deeper correction.
### Weekly Map
Equilibrium: 737.9–740.94
Bullish Trigger: Above 749.47
Upside Path: 755.55 → 764.08 → 778.69
Key Support: 726.33
Weakness Below: 726.33 → 717.8 → 709.27
### Final Read
740 is the week's decision zone. Holding above it keeps the primary trend intact and favors another attempt at 749.47. Failure to reclaim or hold the equilibrium shifts the advantage to sellers, with 726.33 becoming the first downside target.






















