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USD/CAD: THE 1.39800 TRIANGLE RESISTANCE RALLY! 🚀 Testing demand near 1.38618! Are you panic-selling this green demand box retest, or locked in for the multi-wave expansion to the 1.39800 macro resistance ceiling? 🤔 The US Dollar is setting up a solid bullish recovery structure against the Canadian Dollar on this 6-hour OANDA chart. USD/CAD is trading around 1.38618, holding cleanly inside its green demand box along ascending channel support following a major markdown out of a multi-week Triangle pattern. Price is coiling to sweep liquidity and trigger an institutional expansion wave back toward the overhead Resistance line. 📈💥 Look closely at the black blueprint trajectory mapping out the upcoming sessions. The algorithm projects a textbook multi-wave retest, expansion, and eventual structural rejection sequence: • A localized dip touching the green demand zone around 1.38500 to clear weak hands and trigger institutional buy orders. 🧹 • An initial impulse surge pushing price past local structure toward the 1.39200 region. ⚡ • A healthy higher-low pullback dipping back to 1.38900 to solidify structural support and absorb remaining sell orders. 🌊 • A secondary expansion wave driving straight up to target the macro horizontal Resistance line ceiling near 1.39800. 🧱 • A strong institutional rejection off 1.39800 dumping price back down to test 1.39200. ⚡ • A minor relief bounce back toward 1.39400 before accelerating lower toward 1.39000 channel support. 🎯🔻 Maintaining technical patience and aligning with trendline demand is your ultimate edge in this setup. Trying to short directly into a verified green demand floor while price holds above ascending channel support is a fast track to getting caught in an aggressive expansion squeeze. Smart money is waiting for this retest into support to exhaust before accumulating long position blocks. 🧘‍♂️⚡ 🛠 Trade Parameters: 🛒 Long Zone: 1.38450 - 1.38650 🛍️ 🛑 Stop-Loss: 6h close below 1.38100 ❌ 💰 Take-Profit: 1.39800 🎯 The retail bears attempting to short into ascending support are about to get caught offside as institutional buy volume takes control. Stay focused, strictly manage your risk, and let the algorithm carry the trade up to our target. Maintain your composure through the waves, and we will see you up at the 1.39800 resistance target ceiling! 🚀💎

USD/CAD 1H — SMC + Price Action Analysis Market structure: Bearish after the sharp displacement from the 1.3940 area. Price has broken the recent intraday structure and is currently trading below the SSL around 1.3822–1.3825. Key zones 🔴 HTF Supply: 1.3930–1.3942 Previous buy-side liquidity sweep + strong rejection. 🟡 Bearish FVG: 1.3882–1.3896 Main retracement/imbalance area to watch. ⚫ SSL: ~1.3822 Important liquidity reference. 🟢 Major Demand: 1.3788–1.3812 Potential reaction zone if bearish continuation reaches it Scenarios Bearish scenario — preferred If price remains below 1.3860 and rallies are rejected, continuation toward 1.3812 → 1.3788 becomes the cleaner SMC/price-action scenario Bullish alternative A strong reclaim of 1.3860 followed by acceptance above it could allow a retracement toward the 1.3882–1.3896 FVG. A deeper recovery above 1.3900 would weaken the immediate bearish thesis

by GOLD_MARKET_

USDCAD H4 | Bearish Rejection — Downside Targets in Focus USDCAD H4 | Supply Rejection & Bearish Continuation — Lower Targets in Focus USDCAD is showing a developing bearish setup on the H4 chart after a strong rejection from the upper supply area. Price previously recovered toward the 1.3930–1.3950 resistance zone, but sellers stepped in aggressively and pushed the pair back toward the 1.3800 region. The chart now suggests that the recent recovery may be corrective, with downside continuation remaining possible if resistance continues to hold. The latest market backdrop is mixed but currently volatile. US employment data came in stronger than expected, supporting the U.S. dollar and lifting Treasury yields, while Canadian employment weakened. This combination has recently produced upward pressure in USDCAD, meaning the bearish technical setup needs confirmation rather than being treated as a guaranteed move. 📉 Bearish Scenario The primary bearish scenario is based on rejection from the 1.3900–1.3950 supply region and continuation below the current recovery structure. The chart shows a sequence of lower highs around the upper resistance area, followed by a sharp decline toward the 1.3750 support. If price fails to reclaim 1.3900 and begins forming lower highs below this area, sellers could regain control. A confirmed H4 breakdown below 1.3800 would strengthen the bearish continuation setup. 🎯 Bearish Targets: • TP1: 1.3800 • TP2: 1.37530 • TP3: 1.3700 • Extended target: 1.3650 The 1.37530 level is the major downside target marked on the chart. If this support fails with strong H4 closes, the next potential area of interest is around 1.3700–1.3650. Current technical readings also show considerable bearish momentum in several indicators, although short-term moving averages have started to improve after the recent rebound. 📈 Bullish Scenario The bearish outlook would weaken if buyers reclaim the 1.3900 resistance area and establish acceptance above it. A sustained H4 close above 1.3930–1.3950 would indicate that the sellers are losing control of the recent structure. 🎯 Bullish Targets: • TP1: 1.3900 • TP2: 1.3950 • TP3: 1.4000 • Extended target: 1.4050 A breakout above 1.3950 could open the way toward the 1.4000 psychological level and potentially the larger 1.4050 supply zone shown on the chart. However, the bullish scenario requires confirmation because the broader chart structure still contains significant overhead supply. 📊 Trading Perspective From a trading perspective, USDCAD is currently positioned around an important decision area. The recent sell-off from the 1.3930–1.3950 region favors looking for bearish continuation setups, but traders should be careful about entering shorts directly into the 1.3800 support area. A more structured approach would be to monitor the reaction around 1.3830–1.3900. If price rallies into resistance and produces bearish rejection, lower-high formation, or a bearish H4 close, sellers could gain a better risk-to-reward opportunity. Alternatively, if price breaks below 1.3800 and retests the level from underneath, that could provide confirmation for continuation toward 1.37530 and lower. The fundamental picture requires additional caution. The latest U.S. jobs report showed 162,000 payroll gains in August versus expectations around 53,000, while Canada's employment fell by 41,700. This divergence favors the USD in the short term and creates a potential headwind for the bearish USDCAD thesis. At the same time, the Bank of Canada kept its policy rate at 2.25% and has highlighted inflation risks, while higher oil prices can provide support to the commodity-linked Canadian dollar. 🔑 Key Points • H4 price action shows strong rejection from the upper supply zone. • 1.3900–1.3950 remains the key resistance/supply area. • 1.3830–1.3800 is the immediate decision zone. • 1.37530 is the major downside target shown on the chart. • A confirmed break below 1.3800 could accelerate bearish momentum. • 1.3700 and 1.3650 become important extended downside areas after a clean support breakdown. • A sustained H4 close above 1.3900 would weaken the immediate bearish setup. • A breakout above 1.3950 could shift the structure toward 1.4000–1.4050. • Recent U.S. employment strength has supported the USD. • Weaker Canadian employment data has created additional upside pressure in USDCAD. • Oil prices remain an important variable for CAD because Canada is a major energy exporter. • Current technical momentum remains sensitive after the sharp recent move, so confirmation is important before entering. ⚠️ Risk Management USDCAD is currently exposed to strong macroeconomic volatility, so traders should avoid chasing large H4 candles. The strongest approach is to wait for confirmation around the key levels rather than entering simply because price reaches a support or resistance zone. For bearish trades, risk can be structured around the invalidation of the lower-high/supply setup. For bullish trades, the key confirmation would be a sustained move above 1.3900–1.3950. Position sizing should remain controlled, particularly around major U.S. and Canadian economic releases. 📌 Overall Outlook The technical structure remains cautiously bearish while USDCAD stays below the 1.3900–1.3950 supply region. The preferred downside path is 1.3800 → 1.37530 → 1.3700, with 1.3650 as a possible extended target if selling pressure accelerates. However, the latest U.S.–Canada employment divergence creates a fundamental reason for caution, as stronger U.S. data and weaker Canadian data can support USDCAD. The key levels to watch are therefore 1.3950 on the upside and 1.3800 on the downside. A rejection below resistance keeps the bearish scenario active, while a confirmed breakout above 1.3950 would significantly improve the bullish case.

Could we see a reversal from here?Loonie (USD/CAD) is rising toward the pivot, which has been identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse towards the pullback support. Pivot: 1.3940 1st Support: 1.3775 1st Resistance: 1.4120 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.

kvmev - USDCAD entry Entering a 1:1.5 RR short position on USDCAD. Price has created lower highs and printed a clean break and retest pattern consistently for the past 2 months following its bearish market structure shift since July 10, 2026. We can also see price respecting the descending trendline as well as a clear double top rejection indicating the continuation of the bearish momentum. Expecting price to retest the lows and create a double bottom. ___ Disclaimer: The content shared is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor. Any actions you take based on this content are done at your own risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

THE KOG REPORT - USDCAD JACKSON HOLE USDCAD: Key level above here which will need to be broken to go higher. Above that, the ideal level for a target and a RIP in my opinion. The level below markets “Need to breach” is the key level. I would say bullish above that. As always, trade safe. KOG

by KnightsofGold

USD/CAD BULLISH SWING SETUP Timeframe: Daily (1D) Direction: Long / Buy The USD/CAD currency pair is presenting a high-confluence bullish swing trade opportunity off the 1.3800 key structural baseline. Following a technical correction from multi-month highs near 1.4250, price has retreated to a high-volume demand zone. This setup presents an exceptionally attractive risk-to-reward ratio (1:12 R:R) aligned with macro tailwinds favoring potential U.S. Dollar resilience over mid-to-long term horizons. Trade Parameters * Entry: 1.3800 * Stop Loss (SL): 1.3700 (100 pips risk) * Take Profit (TP): 1.5000 (1,200 pips reward) * Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:12 Technical: Major Structural Support: 1.3800 serves as a psychological handle and a multi-touch pivot level that supported structural breakouts in late 2025 and mid-2026. Retesting this level converts prior resistance into demand, providing a clean technical foundation for buyer re-entry. Market Structure & Order Flow: The higher-timeframe daily trend remains structurally intact, printing higher highs and higher lows since early 2026. The recent pullback from 1.4250 to 1.3800 reflects market repricing rather than structural trend invalidation.

USDCAD H1 | Bearish Reaction Off Overlap Resistance Momentum: Bearish Price is currently below the ichimoku cloud. Sell entry: 1.38517 - Overlap resistance - 38.2% Fib retracement Stop Loss: 1.38928 - Pullback resistance Take Profit: 1.38035 - Swing low support High Risk Investment Warning Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk), Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/en): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au

03:50

USDCAD--LONG Weekly Bullish Bias & Monthly Scenarios Weekly Momentum: Last week closed bullish, signalling upward momentum. Monthly Outlook: The upcoming month remains neutral (could resolve bullish or bearish). Bearish Scenario: If the monthly trend is bearish, this week’s upward move acts as a corrective pullback to the key resistance level. Bullish Scenario: If the monthly trend turns bullish, this week’s move marks the next step toward our higher-timeframe target.

USDCAD 4H – Bearish Bias Hello Trading Fam! 👋 Price is testing a major resistance zone while sitting in an overbought area. A rejection here could push price lower, so the focus is on looking for shorts. Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️

by TradeAnalyst_Aanko

USD/CAD: POI Reached — Looking for a Rebalance to 0.5 USD/CAD has completed a strong bearish move and reached our lower area of interest. At this stage, I expect a final liquidity sweep inside the POI followed by a potential reversal reaction. If buyers confirm, the main scenario is a move back toward the 0.5 area, which remains the nearest logical rebalance zone. The main target is marked on the chart. Scenario: POI → Liquidity Sweep → Reversal → Rebalance to 0.5

by Fibonacci_Flow

USDCAD Completes Reversal Structure Reversal patterns mark where supply ran out of breath — but high-impact macro news determines whether the breakout survives. When trading the Canadian Dollar, you are always reading two narratives at once: US economic momentum and energy market dynamics. While TVC:UKOIL Crude Oil weakness has provided a tailwind for FX:USDCAD USDCAD, there is a massive macro factor every trader must respect this week: Non-Farm Payrolls ( ECONOMICS:USNFP NFP) and labor market data. During high-impact news weeks like NFP, technical levels are prone to extreme volatility, false breakouts, and liquidity sweeps. A pristine technical pattern can be tested violently in seconds. That does not mean we ignore the chart; it means we elevate our risk management. The Technical Structure On the lower timeframes, USDCAD has completed an Inverse Head and Shoulders structure, breaching its neckline to signal a potential short-term reversal. However, entering blindly right before or during news release is gambling, not trading. We wait for the market to absorb the initial volatility and test our structural levels with real volume. The Setup & Execution Strategy We are monitoring a pullback into the Support Area (Pullback Zone) around 1.3870 – 1.3890, corresponding to the retest of the broken neckline. Rules: Do not enter immediately ahead of the NFP release. Wait for the post-news candle (1H close) to show clear price action confirmation (rejection wicks or bullish momentum). If news causes a violent break below invalidation, the setup is canceled instantly. Head & Shoulders Target: 1.4050 Invalidation Level: 1.3824 (Right Shoulder Low) If price closes below 1.3824, the right shoulder structure has failed and the bullish idea is completely invalidated. Patience is doubly important during news weeks. Let the news clear, then let the price action speak. Risk Warning: This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Foreign exchange trading carries heightened risk during high-impact economic events like NFP. Always trade with strict risk controls and reduced position sizing during news events.

by pullbacksignal

USDCAD Will Keep Growing! HI,Traders ! #USDCAD is trading in a Strong uptrend and the Pair made a bullish breakout Of the key horizontal level Of 1.38867 so we are bullish Biased and we will be expecting A further bullish move up ! Comment and subscribe to help us grow !

by kacim_elloitt

USDCAD Bank Map: Supply Rejection to 1.3700 Demand Floor!💰 USD/CAD "SWISSY" — WAIT... CORRECTION! 🔔 💰 USD/CAD "LOONIE PAIR" — THE GREAT VAULT HEIST 🔐 📅 Forex Bank Wealth Strategy Map | Day & Swing Trade ⚡ BEARISH EXECUTION MODE ACTIVATED ⚡ 🎩 Ladies & Gentleman (Thief OG's) — Welcome Back to the Vault! 🏦💸 The crew is geared up, the blueprint is on the table, and the getaway car is running. USD/CAD is our target today — and the signals have spoken loud and clear. Let's break it down, OG style. Clean. Sharp. Ruthless. Current Live Spot Price (London Time, 04 Sep 2026): USD/CAD ≈ 1.4067 area (2026 High: 1.4248 | 2026 Low: 1.3483) 📊 My Market Bias ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ 🔻 BEARISH 🔻 Timeframe: Day / Swing Trade (1D Primary | 4H Confirmation) Direction: SHORT — USD/CAD expected to continue downside pressure Bias Strength: High — Multiple confluences aligned (EMA rejection + volume + structure) The Daily candle sequence is showing rejection wicks on the upper end and closes below the critical EMA zone — this is not a coincidence, this is the banks offloading positions. Smart money is rotating OUT of USD/CAD strength. The Thief Crew is riding that wave, OGs. 🎯 Possible Scenario ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ Phase 1 — Entry Window: YOU CAN ENTER THE MARKET AT ANY LEVEL within your personal risk parameters. The Thief Boss does not time entries for you — that's your call, your game, your rules. Price is currently in the 1.4000 — 1.4080 compression zone. Any bearish momentum confirmation on your preferred timeframe is a valid trigger. Phase 2 — The Drop Begins: Price breaks below 1.3950 support, triggering stop hunts above and flushing trapped bulls. Intermediate targets around 1.3800 — 1.3750 on the way down. Phase 3 — Final Vault Crack (Main Target): 🏆 MAIN TARGET / FINAL VAULT: 1.37000 🏆 This level represents a major psychological and structural support zone. The police force (SUPPORT) above is stacked with oversold conditions, trapped sellers, and a heavy reversal block — meaning the real treasure sits below at 1.37000. That's where we crack the vault and collect. Note from Thief Boss: Dear Ladies & Gentleman (Thief OG's) — I am not recommending that you set only my TP as your take profit. It is your own choice. You can make money, then take money at your own risk. Partial profits along the way are always a wise heist tactic. 💡 🛑 Escape Hatch — Stop Loss (Thief SL) ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ 🚨 Thief SL: 1.39000 🚨 This stop is positioned above the major SUPPORT / police force zone. If price breaks aggressively above 1.39000, the heist plan is compromised — the setup is invalidated and it's time to exit the building cleanly. Note from Thief Boss: Dear Ladies & Gentleman (Thief OG's) — I am not recommending that you set only my SL as your stop loss. It is your own choice. You can make money, then take money at your own risk. Every trader has their own risk tolerance — manage yours wisely. 🎯 🌍 Areas I Am Watching ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ KEY STRUCTURAL LEVELS ON THE RADAR: Resistance / Police Force Zones (No Entry for Bulls): - 1.3860 — 1.3900 (Major EMA cluster + distribution block) - 1.4000 (Psychological round number resistance) - 1.4080 — 1.4100 (August 2026 swing high zone) - 1.4248 (2026 Yearly High — extreme police territory) Support / Vault Levels (Thief OG targets): - 1.3800 (First intermediate support) - 1.3750 — 1.3700 (Key demand zone — FINAL VAULT TARGET area) - 1.3600 (Extended target if momentum holds) - 1.3483 (2026 Yearly Low — deep vault) Momentum Watch: - 1D RSI: Approaching overbought levels near resistance — bearish divergence forming - 4H MACD: Bearish crossover in play — momentum shifting downside - Volume: Declining on rallies = smart money distribution confirmed 🔗 Correlated Pairs to Watch — Live Market Snapshot ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ These are the instruments the Thief Crew watches to read the macro flow around USD/CAD. Price levels are approximate USD-equivalent spot rates as of early September 2026. --- 1. EUR/USD ≈ 1.1400 area Correlation: INVERSE to USD/CAD. When EUR/USD rises (USD weakens), USD/CAD typically falls. A continued EUR/USD rally above 1.1400 adds confirmation pressure to our bearish USD/CAD setup. Watch the ECB tone closely — any hawkish signals from Frankfurt strengthen the Euro and weaken the Dollar, which accelerates CAD's favour. --- 2. WTI Crude Oil (USOIL/CL) ≈ $93 — $96 per barrel Correlation: INVERSE to USD/CAD. Canada is the largest crude oil exporter to the United States. When oil prices rise, the Canadian Dollar gains strength — which means USD/CAD falls. WTI has been elevated above $93-95 through mid-2026 driven by Middle East supply disruption and OPEC+ discipline. This is a MAJOR CAD-supportive factor working in our bearish USD/CAD favour. --- 3. AUD/USD ≈ 0.7010 — 0.7045 area Correlation: POSITIVE to CAD strength (both are commodity currencies). AUD and CAD frequently move in the same direction versus the USD. If AUD/USD is trending higher (USD weakness), CAD also tends to strengthen, confirming USD/CAD downside. Risk-on sentiment that lifts the Aussie also lifts the Loonie. --- 4. NZD/USD ≈ 0.5740 — 0.5830 area Correlation: POSITIVE to USD/CAD bearish move. Like the Aussie, the Kiwi is a risk-sensitive commodity currency. A strengthening NZD/USD is consistent with broad USD weakness which aligns with our bearish USD/CAD scenario. Monitor NZD for confirming signals. --- 5. USD/JPY ≈ 155 — 163 area Correlation: MIXED, context-dependent. A falling USD/JPY (USD weakness vs Yen) in a risk-off move can coincide with USD weakness across the board — USD/CAD included. However, in risk-off panics, CAD can also weaken. Use USD/JPY as a Dollar strength gauge only. --- 6. EUR/CAD ≈ 1.6189 — 1.6250 area Correlation: DIRECT correlated pair. EUR/CAD rising means Euro strengthening relative to CAD — but it also reflects the CAD's position against European currencies. A stable or declining EUR/CAD alongside a declining USD/CAD confirms broad CAD strength. Watch this for cross-currency confirmation. --- 7. GBP/USD ≈ 1.3136 — 1.3850 area (April reference) Correlation: POSITIVE to USD weakness. Sterling's direction often mirrors Euro sentiment vs the Dollar. A rising Cable (GBP/USD) is consistent with USD weakness — which confirms our bearish USD/CAD bias. BoE policy signals also matter here. 📰 Educational Breakdown — Fundamental & Economic Landscape (Neutral — Bullish AND Bearish Factors Presented. No Bias. Market Facts Only.) ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ LIVE MACRO DATA (As of 04 September 2026, London Time): --- CENTRAL BANK RATES --- 🏛 Bank of Canada (BoC) Overnight Rate: 2.25% Status: HELD — September 2, 2026 (7th consecutive hold since December 2025) BoC has maintained a steady pause despite inflation rising to 3.0% in July 2026, citing that the price pressure is largely energy-driven and potentially temporary. Core CPI rose to 2.3% in July from 2.1% in June — still relatively contained. 🏛 US Federal Reserve (Fed) Funds Rate: 3.50% — 3.75% Status: HELD through mid-2026. Fed next scheduled decision: September 16, 2026. Prediction markets (Kalshi/Polymarket) pricing ~80% probability of NO CHANGE at the September 16 meeting. However, BofA and Deutsche Bank have shifted to projecting a 25bps HIKE in September, citing resilience in the US labour market and persistently elevated inflation under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance. Markets currently price ~41bps of total rate increases remaining in 2026 cycle. --- INFLATION DATA --- 🇨🇦 Canada CPI (July 2026): 3.0% year-over-year Headline inflation has surged — primarily energy-driven as WTI soared above $95/bbl through Q2/Q3 following escalating Middle East conflict. Core inflation (BoC preferred measure): 2.3% — still relatively close to the 2% target. TD Securities projects headline CPI averaging 2.9% over Q2/Q3, peaking at 3.0%. 🇺🇸 US CPI: Elevated, with Fed maintaining cautious stance on additional tightening. Nearly half of FOMC officials in June 2026 projections signalled rates could rise. US labour market described as "still-strong" — limiting room for Fed to pivot dovish. --- GROWTH & EMPLOYMENT --- 🇨🇦 Canada GDP Q2 2026: +3.3% annualized — HIGHEST in three years. Labour market surged — Canada added 88,000 jobs in July 2026 (sharply above expectations). Economy showing clear signs of rebound, re-escalating US-Canada trade tensions notwithstanding. BoC characterised policy as "about the right level" given trade-related uncertainty. 🇺🇸 US Economy: Labour market resilient, GDP growth solid, but trade policy uncertainty remains a factor in forward Fed guidance. --- OIL MARKET --- 🛢 WTI Crude Oil: Elevated in the $93 — $101 range through Q1-Q3 2026 Middle East conflict (US-Israel-Iran war) has kept global energy supply under stress. IEA flagged record global oil surplus projections for 2026 at 2.96 million bpd longer term — a bearish offset factor that could limit oil upside and eventually weigh on CAD. Current elevated prices support CAD (Canada's largest export item is oil). --- TRADE & GEOPOLITICAL RISK --- 🌐 US-Canada Trade War: Re-escalating tariff tensions between Washington and Ottawa. Canada's economy coping with US protectionism, creating growth headwinds for CAD. Middle East conflict driving energy price volatility — two-sided risk for CAD. --- BULLISH USD/CAD ARGUMENTS (Factors favouring USD strength / CAD weakness) --- - Fed rate at 3.50-3.75% vs BoC at 2.25% = significant interest rate differential favouring USD - Potential Fed hike September 16 could widen rate gap further, boosting USD - Re-escalating US-Canada trade war headwinds weighing on Canadian economic outlook - IEA forecasting record global oil surplus in 2026 — longer-term oil price risk = CAD headwind - US labour market resilience keeps USD demand elevated --- BEARISH USD/CAD ARGUMENTS (Factors favouring CAD strength / USD weakness) --- - WTI crude oil above $93-95 per barrel = direct Canadian Dollar support - Canada GDP Q2 2026 at +3.3% annualized = strongest growth in 3 years = CAD positive - Canada added 88,000 jobs July 2026 = labour market resilience = CAD positive - BoC holding rates steady = policy certainty, no further easing risk premium in CAD - Fed hold at September 16 (80% probability) = no near-term USD catalyst to the upside - Dollar weakness narrative building across major pairs (EUR/USD, AUD/USD elevated) - USD/CAD has already rejected from 2026 yearly high at 1.4248 = premium zone exhaustion --- UPCOMING HIGH-IMPACT EVENTS TO MONITOR --- 📅 FOMC Decision: September 15-16, 2026 (HIGH IMPACT — USD/CAD major volatility trigger) 📅 Bank of Canada Next Decision: October 28, 2026 📅 Canada CPI Data: Monthly release — watch for August 2026 inflation reading 📅 US NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls): Monthly release — key USD driver 📅 Canada Labour Force Survey: Monthly — CAD sensitivity event 📅 Middle East conflict developments: Ongoing oil price volatility trigger 💬 Thief Trader Motivation & Wisdom 🌟 ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ "The market doesn't reward the fastest or the loudest. It rewards the most PATIENT thief who waits for the vault door to crack open — then walks in calmly, takes what belongs to them, and disappears without a sound." — Thief Boss 🎩 Hey OG Thief Family — if this idea speaks to you, smash that 🚀 BOOST button, drop a 💬 comment, and show the world that the Thief Trader crew runs the smartest operations on TradingView! Your support keeps the vault blueprints coming. We grow together. We profit together. That's the Thief OG way. 💎🙌

MarketBreakdown | USDCAD, GBPAUD, GBPCAD, US500 Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watch list. 1️⃣ #USDCAD daily time frame 🇺🇸🇨🇦 The market looks bearish after BoC Interest Rate decision yesteday. The price violated a horizontal support of a wide range. We can expect a further bearish continuation. 2️⃣ #GBPAUD daily time frame 🇬🇧🇦🇺 As I predicted earlier, GBPAUD dropped sharply. The market is currently breaking another major support. A daily candle close below that will provide a strong bearish signal. The market will drop even lower then. 3️⃣ #GBPCAD daily time frame 🇬🇧🇨🇦 The price is testing a major horizontal demand cluster. With a high probability, a pullback will occur. 4️⃣ #US500 S&P500 Index daily time frame 🇺🇸 The market respected a major historical support cluster. Taking into consideration that the current long-term trend is bullish, the Index will likely continue rising. Do you agree with my market breakdown? ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.

by VasilyTrader

Bearish reversal in sight?Loonie (USD/CAD) is rising toward the pivot, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse toward the 1st support. Pivot: 1.3917 1st Support: 1.3827 1st Resistance: 1.4004 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.

USDCAD H1 | Bullish Bounce Off Pullback Support Momentum: Bullish Price is currently above the ichimoku cloud. Buy entry: 1.38618 - Pullback support - 71% Fib retracement - Fair value gap Stop Loss: 1.38421 - Swing low support Take Profit: 1.38987 - Swing high resistance High Risk Investment Warning Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk), Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/en): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au

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USDCAD Bullish Reversal from Discount – 1.43328 and 1.47495 TP USDCAD is approaching a significant higher-timeframe demand area after sustained selling pressure from the 1.4200 region. 🔺The current correction has produced several bearish Breaks of Structure (BOS) confirming that sellers remain in control of the short-term order flow. However, the price is now moving towards a potential discounted buying area where the larger bullish structure may resume. 🔺At the time of this chart, USDCAD is trading around 1.38545. The analysis anticipates a further move lower towards the marked 1.37555 entry level before a potential bullish reversal. Why the Bullish Structure Remains Relevant 🔺Earlier in the chart, USDCAD collected sell-side liquidity within the 1.3500 region before producing a bullish Change of Character (CHOCH). This was followed by strong displacement and a BOS above the previous major high around 1.3950. 🔺After another corrective phase, price reconfirmed demand and delivered a second bullish expansion towards 1.4200. This demonstrates that the broader structure has repeatedly responded from discounted price areas. 🔺The current decline can therefore be viewed as a potential retracement into demand rather than a confirmed long-term bearish reversal. Primary Entry Area The main point of interest is located around 1.37555. This level is technically significant because it aligns with: • A previous consolidation and demand area • The origin of an earlier bullish expansion • Sell-side liquidity below recent short-term lows • A discounted price within the wider bullish range • A more favourable entry compared with chasing the current market price Price may briefly trade beneath 1.37555 while collecting liquidity. This would not automatically invalidate the setup provided the protected level at 1.36836 remains intact. Bullish Confirmation to Watch For Short-term seller pressure remains evident, so traders should avoid entering solely because the price touches the entry line. Confirmation can be obtained from a lower timeframe through: • A sweep of liquidity below a recent low • Strong rejection from the demand area • A bullish Market Structure Shift or CHOCH • Bullish displacement away from the zone • Formation and successful retest of a bullish Fair Value Gap Upside Objectives If the reversal is confirmed, the potential objectives are: • Initial structure: 1.3950 • Previous resistance: 1.4100–1.4250 • First official target: 1.43328 • Second official target: 1.47495 🔺The first target is above the previous major swing high and premium selling zone. Reaching this objective requires the price to break and hold above the descending trendline and the 1.4200–1.4250 resistance region. 🔺The second target at 1.47495 represents the longer-term bullish objective. This target becomes more realistic only after the first target is reached and the market continues to produce higher highs and higher lows. Invalidation The marked protective level is 1.36836. A decisive two-day close below 1.36836 would invalidate the proposed bullish reversal and suggest that the demand area has failed. This could expose lower liquidity levels and allow the bearish correction to continue. Overall Bias 🔺The short-term structure remains bearish while the price trades beneath the descending trendline. However, the wider expectation is for USDCAD to complete its retracement around 1.37555 and then attempt a bullish reversal towards 1.43328 and potentially 1.47495. 🔺The cleaner approach is to avoid chasing the price at its current level. Allow the market to reach the planned point of interest and wait for bullish confirmation before considering the projected continuation. 🔺This analysis describes a conditional market scenario rather than a guaranteed result. Traders should use suitable position sizing, confirmation and disciplined risk management. LIKE AND COMMENT ❤️👨‍💻 THE SETUPSFX_ TEAM

USDCAD has formed a potential head-and-shoulders bottom On the 4-hour chart, USDCAD has formed a potential head-and-shoulders bottom pattern. Attention is currently focused on resistance near 1.3912; a breakout could pave the way for further gains, with the upside target set at the 1.4000 mark.

Buy to 1.4000 We are in a downtrend, however we have a reversal pattern on HTF. So I drew the fib and from this continuation, we should be able to get 1.4000

by Mr_Wicked_the_Sage

sell we are monitoring usdcad for a selling opportunity in this zone, usdcad is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at red and green support and resistance area. Trade safe by ichimoko

USDCAD: Bullish Push to 1.399?FX:USDCAD is eyeing a bullish reversal on the 4-hour chart , with price testing a key support zone after recent lows, converging with a potential entry area that could ignite further upside momentum toward the higher resistance zone if buyers defend amid volatility. This setup suggests a solid rally opportunity with more than 1:5.5 risk-reward .🔥 Entry between 1.375–1.377 (entry from current price with proper risk management is recommended). Target at 1.399 . Set a stop loss at a daily close below 1.373 , yielding a risk-reward ratio of more than 1:5.5 . Monitor for confirmation via a bullish candle close above entry with rising volume, leveraging the pair’s strength near support.🌟 Fundamentally , USDCAD is trading around 1.386 in late August 2026. For the US Dollar, the most important release this week (24–28 August) is the US Core PCE Price Index (July) on Wednesday, August 26 — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge that can significantly influence dollar strength. For the Canadian Dollar, a key event is the Canada GDP data (June / Q2) on Friday, August 28, which will provide critical insight into the health of the Canadian economy. 💡 📝 Trade Setup 🎯 Entry (Long): 1.375 – 1.377 (Entry from current price is acceptable with proper position sizing and strict risk management.) 🎯 Target: 1.399 ❌ Stop Loss: Daily candle close below 1.373 📈 Risk-to-Reward: More than 1:5.5 💡 Will buyers defend 1.375–1.377 and drive USDCAD toward 1.399, or will sellers break support and invalidate the bullish setup? 👇

by Master_Hunter

USD|CAD Analysis Before you're allowed to press Sell: 4H bearish? ✅ Price inside our POI? ⬜ Preferably premium pricing? ⬜ Buy-side liquidity swept? ⬜ 15m bearish MSS? ⬜ Strong bearish displacement? ⬜ Clean FVG/OB left behind? ⬜ 5m retest? ⬜ At least 2R available? ⬜ No imminent dangerous news? ⬜ Risk ≤ 0.25%? ⬜ Every important box must be checked. If we get: POI ✅ Sweep ✅ MSS ❌ then: NO TRADE. That's the discipline I want baked into your system.

by allanjoynerr