COT 101 · Lesson 04 — Small Traders: Not Always "Dumb Money"🔵 WHO THEY ARE
Small traders — "nonreportable" in the CFTC's language — are everyone below the reporting threshold. The report does not name them; it shows their combined positions as the residual of the market. Most are individual traders.
🔵 THE CONTRARIAN CASE
Retail traders tend to be wrong
Compare with Euro / United States Dollar
Weekly Review (Aug 31 – Sep 4): EURWeekly review for August 31 – September 4. Not signals, just how I read the tape with the Conflux Method: structure (Reaction Levels), order flow (cluster / delta) and options data.
Context: Jackson Hole flipped the rate picture — September hike odds went from 35% to 57%. Warsh decided the move on
Euro FX Futures: Option Pin Before Breakout Risk6E has a conditional upside setup rather than an immediate chase. Spot EUR/USD is sitting near a reported €2.1bn 1.1675-80 New York cut (10am ET) expiry, which can keep price magnetised before the cut, if that shelf gives way and spot holds above 1.1687, the same option gravity that suppressed movem
Weekly Review (Aug 24-28): EUR, GBP, AUD, Gold & RatesWeekly review for August 24–28. Not signals, just how I read the tape with the Conflux Method: structure (Reaction Levels), order flow (cluster / delta) and options data.
Context: last week Bessent announced a doubling of the government-bond buyback limits (running Sept 9 to Nov 4), timed around th
Long trade
📊 6E1! EURO FX FUTURES — POC / VALUE-AREA READ
Wednesday 26 August 2026
Entry Time: 10:45 AM NY Time
Direction: 🟢 Buyside
Entry: 1.16545
Target: 1.16855 (+0.266%)
Stop: 1.16510 (0.030%)
Planned RR: 8.86R
POC / Value Read
The chart shows 6E1! trading from a lower-value / discount location and atte
EUR/USD Weekly Update — Premium Rejection Begins to DeliverLast week I published this same higher-timeframe framework before the current move developed.
Now we’re simply auditing the thesis against price.
The Weekly structure remains bearish following the previously identified Weekly Break of Structure.
Price subsequently expanded back into premium prici
6E Long — Euro bulls have the ECB in their corner, and this pullECB rate hikes and rising eurozone inflation provide a strong fundamental catalyst for Euro strength. The technical structure aligns with a pullback buy setup, offering a well-defined risk-reward entry at a 1h momentum trigger with plenty of room to upside resistance.
📍 Entry: 1.15560
🛑 Stop: 1.153
𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼 𝗙𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗢𝘂𝘁𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼 𝗙𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗢𝘂𝘁𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸 | 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟭𝟬–𝟭𝟰, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲
The **Euro Futures (6E1!)** can be viewed as a useful counterpart to the DXY. While they are not exact mirror images, they often show a strong inverse relationship.
The situation is therefore similar to the DXY — **but with one important difference.
Euro Remains Bearish — But the Bigger Picture Is Changing
Near-term, the euro remains bearish as long as descending trendline resistance continues to hold. However, the longer-term technical picture is becoming increasingly interesting. Price has been compressing within a multi-month falling wedge, a pattern that has historically often resolved with an
EUR/USD: Weekly Institutional Schematic | Bearish FrameworkEUR/USD Weekly Institutional Market Schematic
August 4, 2026
Overview
Every market tells a story before it offers an opportunity.
Rather than beginning with entries on the lower timeframes, I start by identifying the higher-timeframe narrative and then work downward until the execution framework b
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